国会预算办公室-截至2025年10月29日，三种情景下政府关门对经济影响的定量分析

HonorableJodey ArringtonChairmanCommittee on the BudgetU.S. House of RepresentativesWashington, DC 20515 Re:AQuantitativeAnalysis of theEffects oftheGovernment Shutdown onthe EconomyUnder Three Scenarios, as ofOctober29, 2025 DearMr.Chairman: You have asked the Congressional Budget Officefor informationabouttheeffectson the economyofthelapse indiscretionaryappropriations (oftencalled a government shutdown)that began onOctober1, 2025.This letterpresentsestimates oftheeffectsunderthree scenarios: a shutdown that endsafter four weeks (onOctober29),one that endsafter six weeks (onNovember12), andone that endsafter eight weeks (onNovember26).1 InCBO’s assessment, the shutdown will delay federal spendingand have anegative effect on the economythat will mostly,but not entirely,reverseoncetheshutdown ends.The agency estimates thatreal gross domesticproduct(GDP),which has beenadjusted to remove the effects of inflation,will be lowerin the fourth quarter of 2025than it would have beenin theabsence of a shutdown.2Depending on its length, the government shutdownwillreduceannualizedreal GDP growthin that quarterby1.0 to2.0percentage points.After the shutdown,realGDP will be temporarilyhigher than it would have beenotherwise.Although most of thedecline inreal GDP willbe recoveredeventually,CBO estimates thatbetween$7billion and $14billion(in 2025dollars)willnot be. HonorableJodey ArringtonPage2 The effects of the shutdown on the economyare uncertain.Thoseeffectsdependon decisions made by the Administrationthroughout the shutdown.In addition, howfederal employeesand contractorsrespondto thedelayincompensation is uncertain. Effects onFederalSpending Duringthe shutdown, federal outlayswill belower than they would havebeen otherwise:by$33billion in the four-week shutdown scenario,$54billion in thesix-week shutdown scenario, and $74billion in theeight-week shutdown scenario, CBO estimates(seeTable1).Thoseamountsincludedelayedspending for employee compensation, goods and services,and theSupplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).CBO expectsthatwhenappropriations resume,the spending that did not occur during theshutdown will be made up. Spending onEmployee Compensation.The AntideficiencyAct generallyprevents federal agencies and employees from obligating or expendingfederal funds in advance of or in excess of an appropriation as well as fromaccepting voluntary services.3Specifically, that law requires federalemployeeswhose salaries depend on annual appropriationsto stop working HonorableJodey ArringtonPage3 during a lapse in appropriations unless they are considered excepted.(Excepted workers are those who are required to perform specific tasks,such as emergency work protecting life and property.)Federal outlays foremployee compensation will betemporarilyreduced during the shutdownfrom what they would have been otherwiseforbothfurloughed employeesand excepted employees. Using information from federal agencies’ contingency plans and the Officeof Personnel Management (OPM), CBO estimates that underthelapse inappropriations, about600,000employeeswill beconsidered excepted andcontinue toworkeach week,and650,000employeeswill befurloughed, onaverage.CBO’s estimates incorporate theassumption that active-dutymilitary and certain law enforcement personnel will continue to be paid asscheduled.The agency’sanalysisalsoincorporates the expectation thatwhen the lapse in appropriations is over, furloughed and exceptedemployees will be paid retroactively at their regular rate of pay. Spendingon Goods and Services.CBO estimates that federal spending ongoods and services—such as equipment,research and developmentcontracts, and advisory services—willbe lower during the shutdown than itwould have been otherwise. CBO expects thatwith the resumption offunding,all the spending on goods and services that did not occur duringthe shutdown will be made up. Spending onSNAP.According to guidance from the Department ofAgriculture (USDA) andits contingency plan, benefits for SNAP will befully paid in October. As a result, a government shutdown lasting fourweeks would not affect federal spending for SNAP benefits.How a longershutdown would affect SNAP benefitsis uncertain.USDA’swebsite,as ofOctober28,statesthatthe federal government will not issue benefitsonNovember1. Some states have indicated they willpay benefitsusing otherfunds. Because oftheuncertainty, CBO’s analysis incorporates a 50percentprobability that SNAP benefits will be paidafterOctober31 if theshutdown continues beyond that date.4CBO’s analysisalsoincorporates theexpectationthat when the lapse in funding is over,missed SNAPbenefitswill be paid. HonorableJodey ArringtonPage4 Macroeconomic Effects In CBO’s assessment, the government shutdown will have negative effectson the economy, although many of those effects will be temporary.Thoseeffectswillintensify the longer the shutdownlasts. Effects onReal GDP.Economic activityat the end of 2025will be loweras a result of the s