国会预算办公室14张幻灯片中的当前经济观点（英）

September 2025 Growth of Real GDP Growth of Real GDP in CBO’s January 2025 andSeptember 2025 Projections Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate Wage Growth as Measured by the Employment Cost Index forWages and Salaries of Workers in Private Industry Labor Force Participation Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP in the Near Term Overall Inflation and Core Inflation as Measuredby the PCE Price Index Interest Rates Comparison of CBO’s Economic Projections With Those of theBlue ChipForecasters CPI-U = consumer price index for all urban consumers; GDP = gross domestic product. Comparison of CBO’s Economic Projections With Those in theSurvey of Professional Forecasters GDP = gross domestic product; SPF =Survey of Professional Forecasters. Comparison of CBO’s Inflation Projections With Those in theSurvey of Professional Forecasters Comparison of CBO’s Economic Projections With Those ofthe Federal Reserve Notes The projections presented here reflect tariffs implemented as of August 19, 2025; otheradministrative actions taken as of August 28, 2025; and economic developments and laws put inplace as of September 2, 2025. They also reflect CBO’s updated demographic projections,which are based on laws and policies in place as of July 31, 2025, and which do not incorporatethe effects of subsequent administrative or judicial actions, including those affecting immigration. All years referred to in these figures are calendar years. Annual growth rates are measured fromthe fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next year. Some of the figures use shaded vertical bars to indicate periods of recession. A recessionbegins just after a peak in economic activity and runs through the subsequent trough. Values for 2004 to 2025 reflect data available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and theBureau of Labor Statistics as of early September 2025. The definitions on the next two slides are presented in the order in which the terms appear inthe figures. Definitions real gross domestic product (GDP).The nation’s economic output adjusted to remove theeffects of changes in prices. unemployment rate.The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. labor force.The number of people age 16 or older in the civilian noninstitutionalized populationwho have jobs or who are unemployed (available for work and either seeking work or expectingto be recalled from a temporary layoff). labor force participation rate.The percentage of the civilian noninstitutionalized populationage 16 or older that is in the labor force. potential labor force participation rate.CBO’s estimate of what the labor force participationrate would be if economic output and other key variables were at their maximum sustainableamounts. Definitions (continued) real residential investment.Spending on home construction (new single-family andmultifamily structures, manufactured homes, and dormitories), home improvements, andbrokers’ commissions and other ownership-transfer costs. business fixed investment.Purchases of new equipment, nonresidential structures, andintellectual property products (such as software) by private companies and nonprofitinstitutions. Such investment is labeled “fixed” to distinguish it from inventory investment. price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE price index).A summarymeasure of the prices of all goods and services that make up personal consumptionexpenditures. consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U).An index of consumer prices basedon a typical market basket of goods and services consumed by all urban consumers. core inflation.Excludes changes in the prices of food and energy. Definitions (continued) federal funds rate.Refers to the effective federal funds rate—the median interest rate thatfinancial institutions charge each other for overnight loans of their monetary reserves, weightedby loan volume. Blue Chip.Refers toBlue Chip Economic Indicators,a monthly publication that includes morethan 40 forecasts by private-sector economists.