国会预算办公室对2025年至2028年经济的当前看法（英）

SEPTEMBER | 2025 The Congressional Budget Office periodically updatesits economic forecast to reflect changes in laws thataffect revenues and spending, recent economic devel-opments, and updated demographic projections. Thisreport explains recent changes that have affected CBO’sprojections and provides details about the agency’s latesteconomic forecast—namely, its projections of output,the labor market, inflation, interest rates, and trade flowsthrough 2028. Those projections reflect tariffs imple-mented as of August 19, 2025; other administrativeactions taken as of August 28, 2025; and economic devel-opments and laws put in place as of September 2, 2025.They also reflect CBO’s updated demographic projec-tions, which are based on laws and policies in place as ofJuly 31, 2025, and which do not incorporate the effectsof subsequent administrative or judicial actions, includingthose affecting immigration. not account for any expectations about future changes inlaws or policies.2 The major factors underlying most of the changes inCBO’s projections are the 2025 reconciliation act (PublicLaw 119-21), higher tariffs, and lower net immigration(the number of people who enter the United States in agiven period minus the number who leave in that peri-od).3CBO’s updated projections also reflect interactionsamong those factors as well as data released since January.Those data include equity prices and inflation that werehigher, and residential investment that was weaker, thanin CBO’s January projections—reflecting, in part, higherinterest rates and a slower rate of household formationthan previously projected. The pattern of economic growth over the next severalyears reflects differences in the timing of the effects on the Early next year, the agency will publish its economicprojections for 2026 to 2036 as part ofThe Budget andEconomic Outlook. That publication will also provideupdated projections of federal outlays and revenues,which are not included in this report. Changes in CBO’s EconomicProjections Since January 2025CBO’s latest economic projections reflect several substan- tial changes in federal policy and economic developmentsthat have occurred since the agency last published its pro-jections on January 17, 2025, at the end of the previousAdministration.1In accordance with the CongressionalBudget Act of 1974, as amended, those projections did GDp= gross domestic product. •In 2027 and 2028, the effects of reduced netimmigration on the labor force and the waning of thereconciliation act’s near-term boost to demand actas a drag on growth. Partially offsetting those effects,an increase in domestic production, driven by highertariffs, provides a boost to economic growth. As aresult, real GDP growth in those years is roughly thesame as it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections. economy of the reconciliation act and of the changes intariffs and net immigration: •In 2025, the growth of real gross domestic product(GDP)—that is, the nation’s economic outputadjusted to remove the effects of changes inprices—is 0.5 percentage points lower in CBO’scurrent projections than it was in the agency’sJanuary 2025 projections, primarily because thenegative effects on output stemming from new tariffsand lower net immigration more than offset thepositive effects of provisions of the reconciliation actthis year (seeFigure 1). •At the end of 2028, thelevelof real GDP isabout 0.1 percent higher than it was in CBO’sJanuary 2025 projections because of the economiceffects of the reconciliation act, higher tariffs, andlower net immigration; the effects of interactionsamong those factors; and adjustments to reflectrecently published data. •In 2026, the reconciliation act’s effects boostinggrowth dominate the effects slowing it that stemfrom the reduction in net immigration. Waningof the elevated uncertainty about trade policyprovides modest support to economic growth nextyear as supply chains begin to adjust to the highertariffs. Growth next year is 0.4 percentage pointshigher than in the previous projections, reflectingthe reconciliation act’s boost to consumption,private investment, and federal purchases andthe diminishing effects of uncertainty about U.S.trade policy. In the near term, which is the focus of this report, thenet effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, higher tariffs,and lower net immigration on aggregate demand and thelabor supply drive most of the changes in the agency’sforecast (seeTable 1). After 2028, those three factorsaffect the economy mainly by changing real potentialoutput, or the maximum sustainable level of production,which depends on the labor supply, the capital stock (that is, the stock of tangible and intangible productiveassets, such as factories and computer software, used toproduce goods and services), and total factor productiv-ity (TFP, the average real output per combined unit oflabor and capital, excluding the effects of cyclical changesin the economy). contrast, the agency’s January 2025