ENN能源(2688.HK)：三种情景下具有吸引力的风险回报比

EquitiesGas Utilities Buy:Attractive risk-reward profile overthreescenarios China ◆Concerns about the continuity of restructuringwithENN’sparent,plus weak fundamentals,addsshare pricepressure MAINTAIN BUY TARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)66.0073.00 ◆Our bull-bear scenario case study suggestsgoodrisk/reward,despite macro and operational challenges ◆Maintain Buy;cutestimates andTP from HKD73 to HKD66toreflect industry-wide headwinds Concerns around privatisation/merger deal:ENN’s share price has fallen by20%since April 2026,underperforming its peers (4-9%declinesover the same period).We believe the sell-off reflects a combination of weaker fundamentals and increasedmarket concernoverthe announced privatisationandmerger with parentENNNatural Gas (ENN-NG, 600803 CH, RMB18.95, not rated)as the 12 June deadlineapproaches withoutany news regardingCSRC approval–seeMerger deal withparent is announced(27 Mar 2025) for background onthedeal. Baking in more conservative assumptions on industry-wide headwinds:ENNcontinues to face earnings pressure from its core operation for city-gas distribution—including softer gas demand, higher procurement costs, and a structural slowdown innew connections—alongside slower growth in value-added and integrated energybusinesses already seen in 1Q26 (seeA slow start to the year, 30 Apr 2026).In thisnotewepresent a breakdown of equity value for ENN based on SOTP by measuringall businesses onthelatest fundamentals (p.3) as analternative valuation approach,whichsupportsour newDCF-based target price of HKD66 (from HKD73). Risk-reward still looks goodinbull-bear scenarios:Our base TP of HKD66/shreflects ENN’s existing operating fundamentals. Based on our estimates,thecurrentshare priceimpliesac28% discount to our NAV,based on SOTP as an alternativevaluation approach. Ifthe merger/privatisationdealwith its parent remains on thetable and the deadline of 12 June gets further extended, wethink improvedmarketsentimentwouldsupport our base caseandreflect the standalone value of ENN.However,in a bear casescenario whereENN decidesnot to extend and letsthe deallapse, wesee a fair value of HKD46/sh on weaker sentiment, whichwouldbringthevaluationback to whereit wasbefore themerger was announced (early March 2025),implyingac30% discount to NAV. In a bull case, whereENN suddenly receives finalapproval from CSRC to move forward with thedeal, we seefair valueof HKD75/sh(p.4),which isstillbelow thepost-deal value of HKD80/shsuggested by ENN. Evan Li*Head, Asia Energy Transition ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedevan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6619 Zoey Zhou*Associate, Asia Energy TransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedzoey.z.zhou@hsbc.com.hk+852 3945 2400 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Downside risks look limited; maintain Buy:Atthecurrent valuation, wethink themarket is pricing in a smallchance ofsuccess on this deal, while our bear case valueimpliesonlyc8%furtherdownsideshould it not happen. ENN’s diversified business mixand quality operation should supportits fundamentals, plus a c6% dividend yield lookssustainable, given sufficient cash flows. Risk/reward looks attractive and we maintain Buy. Issuer ofreport:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:ENN Energy Alternative NAV-basedSOTPvaluation City-gas sales:We value the segment using a DCF methodology, assuming a WACC of7.2% based on a risk-free rate of 4.25%, equity risk premium of 4.75%%, beta of 1.0 andcost of debt of 4%%. We use a terminal growth rate of-0.5% as we expect gas demand topeak between 2035-2040 before eventually decliningmodestly. ◆Integrated Energy:We value the segment using a DCF methodology, assuming a WACCof7.2%based on a risk-free rate of 4.25%, equity risk premium of 4.75%%, beta of 1.0 andcost of debt of 4%%. We use a terminal growth rate of 1.0% as we expectdemand forenergy (e.g. heating/cooling and electricity) continue to grow. ◆We valueconnection businessat 8x PE given the structural decline in new connections. We valuevalue-added businessat 12x PE for its asset-light business model contributing tostrong cash flows and better growth outlook compared to the traditional city-gas businesses. Three scenarios on the deal Ouroptimistic caseassumes re-affirmed commitment to complete the deal from the companyand/orpositiveupdates from regulatory bodies. Under this scenario, we expectENN’s shareprice torise sharplytowards thefair value of thetransaction consideration. To recap, therestructuring dealwith its parent ENN-NGofferseach shareholder of ENN 2.94 new H-shares ofan enlarged E