脱节的防御：企业、城市和金融体系面临的极端天气风险

Extreme weather is alreadyshaping financial outcomesacross the economy. Losses are no longer confined to isolated assets or sectors, but increasingly emerge through sharedsystems — including infrastructure, supply chains, insurance markets and public services — on whichcompanies, cities and financial institutions all depend. Drawing on disclosure data from companies,insurers and subnational governments, this insight examines how extreme weather risks are beingidentified today, where perceptions diverge across actors and why those gaps matter for economicand financial resilience. Key findings Insurability is a critical butunder-captured risk boundary Recognition is rising but not enough 62% of subnational governmentsdisclosing toCDP across 80 countriesreport being currentlyimpacted by extreme weather.Yet only 35% ofcompanies reporting to CDP (3,890 of 11,261)identify extreme weather as a financiallymaterial risk. Companies anticipateUS$122 billion in assetimpairment,yet only 17 companies quantifyimpacts from reduced insurance availability onhigh-risk assets. Just 149 disclosing insurersanticipateUS$30 billion in future climate relatedclaims liabilities,however companies report onlyUS$3.3 billion in future increases - suggestingthat premium increases, coverage restrictions orinsurer withdrawal could be significantly largerthan companies currently anticipate. Despite underreporting, US$2.9billion in losses were recorded bycompanies in a single reporting year The losses, reported by 3890 companies were ledby heavy precipitation (US$1.5 billion). Operationalshutdowns (US$266 million) and increased directcosts (US$309 million) dominate, showing thatextreme weather hits cash flows and businesscontinuity before it hits balance sheets. A US$34 billion adaptation financegap is compounding system-levelvulnerability Nearly half (46%) of subnational governmentsreport budget constraints limiting adaptationand over 60% have active unfunded adaptationneeds. These public finance shortfalls areaccumulating risk exposures for every businessand investor operating in those places. Anticipated scale vastly exceedslosses to date, with 48% of disclosedextreme weather event risks expectedin the short-term Companies projectUS$714 billion in futurelosses,with flooding alone causing US$389billion. The largest single financial risk effect islost revenue from reduced production capacity— US$281 billion (39% of total) — confirming thatoperational disruption is the defining financialexposure. Extreme weather is a systemic risk,not a firm-level one Financial outcomes are shaped by shareddependencies —infrastructure reliability,insurance market conditions, supply chaincontinuity and local adaptation capacity — thatrequire coordination across actors.Companiesand financial institutions are best positionedto absorb or reduce riskwhen operating withinsystems where these dependencies are managedcollectively and supported by adequate financing. Extreme weather is disrupting thepublic systems that businessesdepend on The sectors most exposed to climate hazardsaccording to subnational reporting —agriculture,human health, water supply, sewerage andwaste management, and transport– are thefoundations of economic activity and businesscontinuity. 1. Where extreme weatherrisk is being identified Climate related extreme weather events have generatedapproximately US$2 trillion in global losses over thepast decade, illustrating that physical climate risks arealready shaping economic outcomes.1This is supportedby subnational governments disclosing to CDP.Of 1,005cities, states and regions across 80 countries reportingthrough CDP - ICLEI Track, 62% identify already beingsignificantly impacted by extreme weather events.Over 60% of subnational governments expect hazardsimpacting their jurisdictions to increase in intensity,frequency, or both, particularly extreme heat, urbanflooding and drought. of concern for the resilience of national economies, thefinancial resilience of businesses and firms, as well asstability of the financial system as a whole. In fact,23% ofsubnational governments specifically highlight financialand insurance activities to be highly exposed tointensifying climate hazards– signaling that subnationalgovernments are recognizing extreme weather events asa financial risk. Yet CDP corporate disclosures covering both real-economy and financial firms reveal that only 35%of the disclosers (3,890 of 11,261) identify extremeweather events as a financially material risk.Despite theunderreporting, extreme weather risks constitute 18%of all environmental risks disclosed; and companiesreport a combined US$717 billion in realized andanticipated losses over short- to long-term horizons,as defined by organizations.Importantly, these impactsare not confined to distant timeframes. 48% of thedisclosed extreme weather event risks are expected inthe short-term, meaning up to two years, placing extremeweather squarely within organizational p