保障家庭保险：减少极端天气下的风险暴露与脆弱性

May 2025 Safeguarding HomeInsurance:Reducingexposure and vulnerabilityto extreme weather Maryam GolnaraghiDirector Climate Change & EnvironmentGeneva Association Zhelyan Vichev Junior Researcher, Climate Change & EnvironmentGeneva Association Geneva Association The Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association ofinsurance companies; our members are insurance and reinsurance Chief ExecutiveOfficers (CEOs). Based on rigorous research conducted in collaboration with ourmembers, academic institutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is toidentify and investigate key trends that are likely to shape or impact the insuranceindustry in the future, highlighting what is at stake for the industry; developrecommendations for the industry and for policymakers; provide a platform to ourmembers and other stakeholders to discuss these trends and recommendations;and reach out to global opinion leaders and influential organisations to highlightthe positive contributions of insurance to better understanding risks and to buildingresilient and prosperous economies and societies, and thus a more sustainable world. Photo credits:Cover page – Unsplash+ Suggested citation: Geneva Association. 2025.Safeguarding Home Insurance: Reducing exposureand vulnerability to extreme weather.Authors: Maryam Golnaraghi and Zhelyan Vichev. May. © Geneva Association, 2025 All rights reservedwww.genevaassociation.org Contents Foreword5 Executive summary6 1. The rising insurance challenge10 1.1.Economic and insured losses related to extreme weather101.2.The protection gap131.3.The critical role of risk-based insurance pricing171.4.Insurance availability and affordability challenges in specific regions171.5.Aims and structure of the report21 2. Socioeconomic drivers of property risks related to extreme weather 2.1.Rising exposure and vulnerability2.2.Rising cost of rebuilding 2325 3. Stakeholder impacts on exposure and vulnerability27 3.1.Homeowners283.2.Communities293.3.Governments303.4.Developers and contractors313.5.Public and private infrastructure owners and utilities313.6.Other specialised agencies313.7.Credit rating agencies313.8.Property valuation, mortgage, and lending stakeholders323.9.Market-based insurance stakeholders363.10. Government-backed insurance pools373.11.Insurance regulators38 4. Reducing risks by investing in local resilience40 4.1.Tier I: Scale up targeted local resilience measures414.2.Tier II: Implement structural changes to valuation and mortgage systems to impacthomeowner decisions45 5. Challenges ahead 49 Appendices Appendix 1: Projected increases in the frequency and severity of floods and wildfires50Appendix 2: Litigation cases brought against local governments and agencies51Appendix 3: Government-owned or -subsidised insurance schemes52 56 References ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report benefited from the contributions of the project’s advisory committee (and other expertsfrom committee members’ organisations), made up of Geneva Association (GA) member companies,insurance associations, think tanks, law firms, engineering companies, and academic institutions: •Gijs Kloek (Achmea)•Jessica Beakbane, Lena Fuldauer, Markus Stowasser, and Yassine Iferden (Allianz)•Ethan Aumann and Dave Snyder (American Property & Casualty Insurance Association)•Hélène Chauveau, Christopher Fasser, and Maria Diaz Hurtado (AXA/AXA XL)•Silke Dierer, Sophie Wilson, and Pierre-Adrien Opinel (AXIS Capital)•Margaret Peloso and Amelie Fava-Verde (Chubb)•Nigel Brook and Wyne Lawrence (Clyde&Co)•Rui Esteves, Augusto Tomé Pedroso, and Sandra Guilherme (Fidelidade)•Gerardo Di Filippo, Francesca Monti, and Alessandra Querin (Generali)•Jörg Steffensen, Andreas Märkert, and David Terán (Hannover Re)•Clare Cordingley (IAG)•Alix Pearce, Ange Nichols, and Duncan Sheppard (Insurance Council of Australia)•Roy Wright, Jennifer Gardner, and Michael Newman (Insurance Institute for Business and HomeSafety)•Blair Feltmate (Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation)•Constantine Tsolakidis (Interamerican Hellenic Insurance)•Alain Lessard and Patrick Khalil (Intact Financial Corporation)•Rakhi Kumar and Amy Wixon (Liberty Mutual)•Swenja Surminski (London School of Economics)•John Anderson, Kimberly Highfield, and William Shields (Manulife)•Antonio Ruiz and Javier Fernandez (MAPFRE)•Andreas Lang, Jeremy Mathis, Thomas Krismer, Bonnie Guth, Farnaz Mahdavian, and TobiasGrimm (Munich Re)•Edward Mishambi and Craig Tillman (Renaissance Re)•Penny Liao (Resource for the Future)•Tamara George and Nicholas Dodd (RMI)•Michele Lacroix (SCOR)•Bob Watkins, Sara Amatuzio, and Larry Stevig (State Farm)•Gillian Rutherford-Liske, Balz Grollimund, Dominik Renggli, Miguel Senac Gayarre, ShaileePradhan, Lucia Bevere, and Maurice Skelton (Swiss Re)•Xiaobin Cao, Wataru Kawaguchi, Tomo Asaka (Tokio Marine)•Joachim Meister, and Bernardo Meizoso (Worley). We are also grateful to the following experts from climate risk modelling firms, the