展望2030年及以后的旅游业：在去碳化世界中的旅游业新形态

The changingshape of tourism ina decarbonising world Envisioning Tourism in 2030 and BeyondThe changing shape of tourism in a decarbonising world This report was prepared for the Travel Foundationby the authors. © Copyright 2023. The principal authors arePaul Peetersat BredaUniversity of Applied Sciences andBernadett PappatEuropean Tourism Futures Institute (ETFI), with further analysisand editing provided byJasper Heslingaat ETFI,Ben Lynamat the Travel Foundation,Ewout Verslootat the NetherlandsBoard of Tourism and Conventions, andSamantha BrayandMichelle Ruttyfrom University of Waterloo. Many other people also helped to shape the analysisby providing feedback and insights at workshops, webinarsand meetings, and by contributing to early drafts.We are sincerely grateful for their time. We are also grateful to our sponsor organisations,who supported this independent research and analysisfor the common good: – Cuidadores de Destinos– Destination Vancouver– Iberostar– Intrepid Travel– Netherlands Board of Tourism and Conventions– Visit Barbados For more information and permission to reproduce/reprint,please contact:admin@thetravelfoundation.org.uk Please use the following reference to cite this study:Peeters, P., Papp, B., 2023. Envisioning Tourism in 2030and Beyond. The changing shape of tourism in adecarbonising world. The Travel Foundation. This document was originally published in January 2023and is available for free on the Travel Foundation websitewww.thetravelfoundation.org.uk DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared for generalguidance on matters of interest only and does not constituteprofessional advice. The authors and distributors acceptno liability for any consequences of those acting, or refrainingto act, in reliance on the information contained in thispublication or for any decision based on it. Foreword Our starting point for this research was the need to betterunderstand, or “envision”, how the travel and tourism world will lookin 2030 and beyond, as we transition towards a net zero emissionseconomy. The Travel Foundation, as a partner organisation for theGlasgow Declaration on Climate Action in Tourism, supports its callon all businesses, destinations and supporting organisations to makea plan and implement it. But how can any organisation effectivelyplan for the future if it doesn’t know what that looks like? Our intention is not to prescribe a roadmap or set of measures.We explicitly explored scenarios in which travel and tourism’sprojected growth could be compatible with achieving the climatetargets laid out in the Glasgow Declaration, which stem from theParis Agreement. The fact that there is only one future scenario thatresembles business-as-usual in a decarbonising world - even withseveral pain points built in - does not make it the project team’srecommended route. It simply makes it the reality we face. We have delayed action for too long, and as a result, our optionshave narrowed. This assessment should act both as wakeup call andmotivation to act. There is huge opportunity for travel and tourismin a decarbonising world, but we must act with urgency and unite inour vision for a “good” transition. The big take home message is that we have moved into a newparadigm where the only option is systems transformation. We shouldtherefore call out the many overly optimistic strategies and planswhich assume – implicitly or explicitly – that we can carry on as usualin the (blind) hope that technology and offsetting will see us through. We also want to bring attention to the need for fairness andequity in the way tourism transitions to net zero. The policies wedraft, the investments we make and the products we develop willeither exacerbate or lessen existing inequalities. Will vulnerablecommunities once again be handed the worst deal? Or willunderrepresented voices be listened to and acted upon? We soughtto include a diverse range of perspectives as we developed ouranalysis, but this is only the beginning of the discussion. And goingforward we must further explore additional scenarios that completeour vision of 2030 -- and deeply consider what we must prioritise inorder to build resilience for the many challenges ahead. Let’s also make it the start of significant collaboration to ensuretourism is part of the solution. A “good” transition is within our reach,but we need to think and act differently if we are to grasp it andmake it reality. Jeremy Sampson,CEO, the Travel Foundation Overview The aim of this study is to explore what a thriving, decarboni-sing tourism sector could look like in 2030 and 2050. We useda systems dynamics model (GTTMdyn) to test various decar-bonisation pathways that would allow us to reach the targetsoutlined in the Paris Agreement. We have concluded that thereis only one plausible decarbonisation scenario that would ena-ble the tourism sector to continue to grow as expected, therebymaintaining its significant contribution to socio-economic deve-l