波兰能源展望：2026及以后——在绿色转型加速中确保稳定

P O L A N DE N E R G Y O U T L O O K ,2 0 2 6&B E Y O N D Securing stability as thegreen transition accelerates C O N T E N T E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y1 .P O L I S H P O W E R M I X E V O L U T I O N2 .N AT U R A L G A S A S C R I T I C A L 3 .N U C L E A R P O W E R A S A L O N G -T E R M 4 .F I N A N C I N G T H E E N E R G Y T R A N S I T I O NC O N C L U S I O N — W H Y A F F O R D A B L E & K AMIL MOSKWIKSenior Advisor WOJCIECH ŚWIERCZPartner, Growth PIOTR ĆWIEKConsultant, Growth GRZEGORZ K ACZORPartner, Energy, Utilities & Resources MIKOŁAJ MATUSZKOPrincipal, Growth We would like to acknowledge all those who contributed in the review of this report, especially:Bartosz Kowal, Jakub Błądek, Wiktor Jankowski, and Jakub Klicki. E X E C U T I V ES U M M A R Y Poland stands at a critical juncture in its energytransition, driven by the urgent need to replace coal-dependent generation while meeting rapidly growingelectricity demand. The 2022 energy crisis, which saw The country faces an unprecedented electrificationwave, with net electricity consumption projected tosurge from 154 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024 to 210-230 TWh by 2040 — a 1.9%-2.5% annual growth ratedriven primarily by transport electrification, heat STRATEGIC PATHWAYS As described in this report, Poland’s energy futurecenters on three potential scenarios with differentnuclear deployment timelines. All three scenariosfeature renewables as the dominant source by 2040,accounting for over 70% of installed capacity. Natural INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGES Poland’s grid infrastructure, designed for centralizedfossil-fuel generation, struggles with renewableintegration. To put the scale of the problem inperspective, in 2024, connection requests for 74GW oftheoretical capacity were declined — morethan theentire Polish system’s capacity of 72 GW. Natural gas provides essential operational flexibility,with five- to 10-minute start-up times compared tocoal’s 80-150 minutes, making it indispensable formanaging renewable energy’s variability. Crucially forenergy security, Poland has successfully diversifiedaway from Russian supplies through liquified natural With coal plants closing and electricity demand rising,PSE warns of potential supply shortages totaling upto 50 hours by 2027. Nuclear energy represents the The Polish Nuclear Energy Program (PNEP) plans todeploy 6-9 GW through two major plants, with the firstscheduled to begin construction in 2028 and enterservice in 2036–2038. However, financing the first plantpresents significant complexity, with the €45 billion Poland is also exploring small modular reactors (SMRs)as a complementary technology for district heatingand industrial applications, though only two units are FINANCING REQUIREMENTS The €650-€670 billion investment requirement for2025–2040 exceeds available domestic financingcapacity, with Polish banks capable of providing only€60-€95 billion by 2030. Generation claims 35% of Success demands coordinated action involving state-led investment-support mechanisms, enhanced privatesector engagement through improved regulatoryframeworks, innovative financing models, and 1 .P O L I S H P O W E R M I X E V O L U T I O N The 2022 energy price crisis serves as a starkreminder of electricity’s fundamental role inmodern economies. When Europe’s averageday-ahead electricity prices rocketed fromroughly €100/MWh to €235/MWh, the surge sent The administration aims to develop 10 newlarge reactors by 2030 while recommissioningclosed facilities, with the Palisades NuclearPower Plant already scheduled to restart by DRIVERS OF RISING This crisis has fundamentally reshuffled globalenergy policy priorities. Governments worldwideare now prioritizing secure, affordable,and reliable energy sources, with energy Poland stands at the threshold of a dramatictransformation in electricity demand. Accordingto PSE’s latest forecasting,3the country’s netelectricity consumption is expected to surge The US exemplifies this shift, with President Donald Trump announcing ambitious plansFigure 1. Net power demand, 2024–2040F to“re-establish the US as the global leaderinnuclear energy,” targeting an expansion from Traditional industrial expansion alone isnot driving the acceleration. Electrificationwill account for about 90% of increaseddemand, fundamentally reshaping how Poland The transformation extends well beyond 2040.Poland’s ongoing economic convergencetoward wealthier EU peers will drive sustainedconsumption growth, with projected per capita CAPACITY & GENERATION The projection of 210 TWh by 2040 representsone possible scenario; however, dependingon thepace of electrification in transportand heating, as well as the development of Meeting this rising demand while complyingwith EU decarbonization commitments presentsPoland with an unprecedented challenge. Thecountry has committed to reducing greenhouse The current energy mix tells a stark story. Asof 2024, electricity generation contributed