2026年展望：在并非无风险的世界中继续前行

Date US Economic Perspectives 2026 outlook: Keep on rockin' in the not sorisk-free world Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 ▪After a tumultuous year, we see the US economy on more stable footing in2026. With some headwinds fading (e.g., trade policy uncertainty) andtailwinds strengthening (e.g., tax cut boost to household income and lowertariff rates), we expect growth to pick up next year to 2.4% (ann/ann andQ4/Q4). Further out, our forecast anticipates growth remainingin the 2-2.25% range in 2027 and 2028. Brett RyanSenior US Economist+1-212-250-6294 Justin WeidnerEconomist+1-212-469-1679 ▪Despite solid growth, the labor market remainsvulnerable. Our baseline isthat the unemployment rate will peak near 4.5% before declining marginallyin H2, as a less uncertain backdrop allows hiring to stabilize amidst reducedlabor supply. But risks are skewed to the downside, given the potential forlayoffs to rise, perhaps motivatedin partby AI adoption. Amy YangEconomist+1-212-250-9959 ▪Disinflation should resume in H2 2026, helped by lower tariff rates andshelter. We have lowered our year-end forecast for core PCE by two-tenthsto 2.4%. However, a resilient economy, persistent supply side shocks, and astructurally more dovish Fed reaction function are likely to prevent the lastmile of disinflation. We now see core PCE inflation around 2.25% in 2027 and2028. ▪Solid growth, stabilizing hiring and above-target inflation are likely to keepthe Powell-led Fed on hold in early 2026 after delivering a 25bp cut inDecember. We then see the Fed cutting again in September under new (moredovish) leadership as disinflation resumes over the back half of the year. Thisimplies a trough in the fed funds rate at 3.3%, just below our unchangedestimate of neutral (3.5-3.75%). Balance sheet growth is likely to resume inQ1, as the Fed restarts reserve management purchases to keep reservesample. ▪Despite this relatively constructive baseline outlook, risks abound. Recessionprobabilities are somewhat elevated, givenuncertainty about the outlooks forlabor demand and supply. AIpresents two-sided risks to the outlook–thepotential to weaken employment further while boosting productivity gains.Market concerns around Fed independence or fiscal sustainability could alsoreemerge, particularly if court rulings allow the removal of Governor Cook (forthe former) and strike down the President's IEEPA powers (for the latter). Summary Distributed on: 24/11/2025 17:13:54 GMTDistributed on: 24/11/2025 17:13:54 GMTAfter a tumultuous year, we see the US economy on more solid footing in 2026.Withsome headwinds fading(e.g.,trade policy uncertainty)and tailwindsstrengthening (e.g., tax cut boost to household income), we expect growth to pick up next year, helping to stabilize the labor market and allow the unemploymentrate to decline marginally. Lower tariff rates should help disinflation, which alongwith a dovish shift in Fed leadership, will lead the Fed to cut rates below 3.5% byyear-end. Despite this constructive baseline outlook, risks abound. Recessionprobabilities are somewhat elevated, given the precarious nature of the labormarket, and AI presents two-sided risks to the outlook–the potential to weakenemployment further while boosting productivity gains. Policy assumptions: Lower tariffs lead to higher budget deficits Summary:We expect that the average effective tariff rate could fall by severalpercentage points next year due to several factors, including further targetedtariff relief and a reasonable probability that the Supreme Court will limit theTrumpadministration’s ability to raise tariffs through the InternationalEmergencyEconomicPowersAct(IEEPA).While otherlegalavenuescouldbepursued (e.g., temporary usage of Section 122, in addition toSections 232 and301), they are unlikely to fullycompensate forthe lost revenue stream.Theadministration’s focus on lowering costsahead of next November’s midtermelectionsare another potential impediment tore-imposing tariffs via other legalavenues.The upshot is thatlower tariff revenues will widen the federal budgetdeficit, which we now anticipate will rise to ~6.7% as a share of GDP. 2025likely the high-water mark for tariffs. How low can they go in 2026? Following theTrump administration’s historictariffannouncementsearlier thisyear, tariff revenuesrosedramaticallyin Apriland as of Octobertotalednearly$35bnfor the month–quadruplethe ~$8.5bn per month averagefrom March2024throughMarch 2025.Reflecting higher tariff collections, thetariff rate onall goods importssurged from 2.5%in 2024toan estimated12.5%in 2025.However,recent data willlikely mark the peakeffective tariffrate;we expect alowereffective tariff rateof8-10% toprevail in 2026. Although tariff rates already appear to beon a decline, given additional deals andcarve outs as well as removing some food items frombeing tariffed (e.g., bananas,coffee and others), the main reason why we expect the effective tariff rate to fall