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Economics - Asia Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Asia: Is the export upcycle broadening beyondtech? Research Analysts Asia Economics Si Ying Toh, CFA - NSLsiying.toh@nomura.com+65 6433 6666 AI-related investment spillovers, commodity price effects and a boost to EVexports due to the push for energy security are driving non-tech export growth. Sonal Varma - NSLsonal.varma@nomura.com+65 6433 6527 Non-tech exports finally pick up:After lagging the broader export recovery throughmuch of 2025, non-tech export growth has accelerated into double-digit territory sinceearly 2026. By country, this is most apparent in the open economies, namelyMalaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.• Three drivers of non-tech export growth: 1) Capital goods – like electrical machineryand precision instruments – have led the recovery, reflecting spillovers from the AI-driven capex cycle; 2) Several traditional products such as chemicals, mineral products& fuel, plastics & rubber, and precious metals have improved due to price effects; and 3)the push towards energy security have boosted EV exports, particularly from China.• Outlook on non-tech exports:We expect a durable recovery in capital goodsexports (machinery), but export growth in the commodity-related sectors is likely tomoderate as war-driven price effects unwind, since underlying demand is stillsubdued. The recovery in auto exports also remains heavily concentrated in China.Overall, the outlook for non-tech export growth appears mixed.• Non-tech exports finally stage a recovery After lagging the broader export recovery through much of 2025, non-tech exports havegathered momentum in recent months (Figure 1). Non-tech export growth has acceleratedinto double-digit territory since early 2026, reaching 10.9% y-o-y in May from -2.2% inOctober 2025. This suggests the export upcycle is broadening and is no longer confined tosemiconductors and AI servers. Source: CEIC and Nomura Global Economics. Non-tech export growth: By country By country, the recovery in non-tech export growth is most visible in the open economies,namely Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand (Figure 2). Production Complete: 2026-07-06 08:32 UTC Source: CEIC and Nomura Global Economics. Non-tech export growth: By product We find that the strongest improvement is visible in capital goods, particularly electricalmachinery and optical & precision instruments (Figures 3 and 4). In addition, exportgrowth has also improved across several traditional product segments, includingchemicals, mineral & fuel products, plastics & rubber, precious metals & jewellery, andautos. What is driving non-tech export growth? We see three key drivers behind the recovery in non-tech exports: AI-related investment spillovers:We believe the recovery in machinery exports isdriven by spillover effects from the ongoing AI-related capex upcycle. Investment in AIinfrastructure, data centres, electrification and industrial automation has generateddemand well beyond semiconductor manufacturing. Building AI infrastructure requiressubstantial investment in electrical equipment, precision instruments, industrialmachinery and more. As a result, beneficiaries of the current capex cycle are nolonger limited to chip producers. Unsurprisingly, the improvement in capital goodsexports, in particular electrical machinery and optical & precision instruments, hasbeen most evident in Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore and China, reflecting theirdominant positions in precision engineering and their ability to capitalize on spillovereffects from AI demand.1. Commodity price effects:Supply disruptions caused by the US-Iran war had led tohigher energy and petrochemical prices, lifting the export values of mineral products &fuel (across Asia), chemicals (China, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea andThailand), and plastics & rubber (China, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea andTaiwan), while heightened geopolitical uncertainty has boosted precious metal prices.These gains have been driven primarily by favourable price effects rather than asustained improvement in underlying demand.2. Energy security boosts EV exports:The Iran-US war has refocused the policy pushtowards energy security and greater EV penetration. The benefit of this primarily accruesto China’s expanding vehicle exports. Chinese manufacturers continue to gain globalmarket share through strong competitiveness in EVs, aggressive pricing and a continuedexpansion into overseas markets. In May,China’sauto export growth (includingchassis) remained elevated at 39.3% y-o-y.Korea’saggregate auto exports stayedtepid in June, due to weaker internal combustion engine exports, but its hybrid (38.6% y-o-y) and EV (18.1%) exports are strong. Auto exports from other Asian economiesremain subdued amid increasing competitive pressure from Chinese producers.3. Note: Nomura’s export leading index can be found on Bloomberg (see ticker: NMEIXLI).Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate (nominal) exports inclu