亚洲科技策略2026年第二季度：势头保持……但门槛正在提高

Asia Tech Strategy 2Q26: Momentum holds...but the bar is rising Asia tech has had a strong start to the year, yet again, with market cap weighted performanceat 27% and equal weighted return at 9%. In this report, we join hands with our fundamentaltech analysts to present the opportunities within the sector. Rupal Agarwal+65 6326 7641rupal.agarwal@bernsteinsg.com The top-down view:Asia tech is now cheap - it has dropped to 22.5x fwd. PE ie. -0.5SDbelow 5yr avg and trading at 30% premium to the market vs. 5yr avg of 37%. The earningssupport remains strong with ample room for upward revisions to continue. Within thesector, Semis, Electronic Equipment, Communication Equipment (at record crowding) arenow trading at record high valuations; leaving higher onus on earnings. The good part isthat, upgrade cycle for all these sub-sectors is not at extreme yet. However, given higherrisk of valuation and crowding, we recommend selective exposure in these sub-sectors. Webelieve, Computer Peripherals, could come under pressure as risk of peak upgrades is high.Out of the underperforming and cheap sub-sectors, only Entertainment and IT services areseeing improving earnings revisions (though this has not been helping IT services). Internethas been cheap for a while, however earnings has been disappointing - now there are veryearly signs of potential inflection in earnings. Interactive Media Services is expected toremain under pressure due to ongoing valuation de-rating and moderating earnings cycle. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Robin Zhu+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Cheng Zhang, CFA, CQF+852 2123 2636cheng.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Positioning within tech:YTD, momentum and growth tech names are up 38% and 20%respectively and even value (13%) and quality (10%) have generated alpha. We startedthe year with a barbell positioning of momentum and value (high yield) tech names, andwe maintain that view. We believe continued earnings upgrade is still providing supportto the momentum trade, though crowding risk and stretched valuations warrant selectiveexposure. The value tech names are quite unloved and showing signs of inflection, andare trading near -1SD relative to the sector. However, earnings have been a drag on thesenames and the trends are not very supportive in the near-term.We show updated screensin Exhibit 22-Exhibit 24. Charles Gou+852 2123 2618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com Min-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Semiconductors:AI still shows no sign of abating. We hence stay positive on AI and likeTSMC. MediaTek is particularly interesting now after the recent pullback (report&report).Memory price increase also continues, and likely at a pace stronger than expected in 2Q26.We remain structurally positive on DRAM but not for NAND. We hence are constructive onSamsung, SK hynix and Micron but remain negative on KIOIXA (report,report). China Internet:The China Internet sector sentiment has remained improved since thestart of the year, with questions variously surrounding ongoing quick commerce spend,monetisation of consumer-facing AI, and broader macro and regulatory developments.Looking ahead though, with Alibaba continuing to raise prices in its cloud business, andquick commerce losses signalled to decline from here, we’re hopeful earnings improvementcan help the stocks we cover. For our preferred screens in Asia, China, Korea, India and Japan, see - Asia QuantStrategy Deck and Japan Q2 strategy. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended2330.TT, TSM, 2303.TT, UMC, 5347.TT, 2454.TT, 3034.TT, 005930.KS, 005935.KS, SMSN.LI, 000660.KS, 285A.JP estimate is Reported EPS; 2330.TT,TSM, 2303.TT, UMC, 5347.TT valuation is P/B (x); 2454.TT, 3034.TT, 005930.KS, 005935.KS, SMSN.LI, 000660.KS, 285A.JP valuation is Reported P/E(x); 285A.JP, 1024.HK, 9626.HK, BILI base year is 1999;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS ASIA SEMICONDUCTORS AND EQUIPMENT & GLOBAL MEMORY - COVERED BY MARK LI TSMC:We rate TSMCOutperformwith TP=NT$2,200.00. UMC: We rate UMCUnderperformwith TP=NT$47.00. Vanguard: We rate VanguardMarket-Performwith TP=NT$94.00. MediaTek:We rate MediaTekOutperformwith TP=NT$2,250.00. Novatek: We rate NovatekMarket-Performwith TP=NT$370.00. Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung ElectronicsOutperformwith target price of KRW 225,000.SK hynix:We rate SK hynixOutperformwith target price to KRW 1,150,000.Micron:We rate MicronOutperformwith target price to US$ 510.00.KIOXIA:We rate KIOXIAUnderperformwith target price to JPY 17,000.CHINA INTERNET - COVERED BY ROBIN ZHUTencent Holdings:We rate Tencent HoldingsOutperformwith TP= 780 HKD.Baba:We rate BabaOutperformwith TP= 180 HKD.JD:We rate JDOutperformwith TP= 140 HKD.Meituan:We rate MeituanMarket-Performwith TP=