等待并购启动：2026年Q2预览，维持买入

NORTH AMERICA | Power & UtilitiesDominion Energy Equity ResearchJuly 6, 2026 Waiting for Merger to Launch: 2Q26 Preview.Maintain Buy MaintainBuy on D.Mixed data points for regulatory approval sinceannouncement but net constructive. Proxy and VA/SC merger applications innext weeks are key data points. Proxy will show NEE growth and whether othersbid on D. VA transmission ROE risk and CT nuclear asset potential the two keyfundamentals drivers are monitoring. 2Q large miss but not key for shares. LiftLT estimates ~2¢ on mark-to-market. Deal spread tightens: we stay constructive on D and comfortable on NEE.We reiterate Buy onshares of Dominion Energy. The unadjusted spread vs NextEra Energy has tightened to ~3% from-8% initially as investors get more comfortable in the standalone value for Dominion. NextEra shareshave stabilized at a ~5% 2029 P/E premium versus utilities peers.Initial data points for the mergerapproval are mixed. Dominion quantified 'only' ~$10 monthly residential bill credit, below the ~$30/monthJEFe we initially calculated. We have seen some opposition to the transaction on the national stagebut in Virginia somewhat positive on the margin. Adverse draft text for the VA merger review timelinewas removed in the final bill. VA Governor has shown support for Dominion by appointing Virginia utilityPresident to the Board of Virginia Tech, despite Clean Energy Virginia opposition. Looking for clues in the proxy.For Dominion shareholders, investors are focused on what partiesexpressed interest in acquiring Dominion aside from NEE. For NextEra, the focus will be on whetherNEE's forecasts supports an 8.5% EPS CAGR or better relative to the 8%+ standalone guidance.Investors are growing more comfortable with NEE valuation. With the spread compressing, the bull thesisfor D shares relies more on NEE re-rating higher from data center announcements. Transaction announced May 15, 2026. 0.8138exchange ratio Transmission ROE risk spotlight grows after NJ action.On June 30th, the New Jersey legislaturetook action to remove the RTO adder. Connecticut and Maryland also filed FERC complaints inrecent weeks. Virginia stands out as a state that could face a FERC complaint. Every 50bp changein FERC ROE represents ~5¢ EPS (1.4%) and 10bp FFO / Debt.VEPCO has a 10.9% base ROE whichhas elevated risk of a separate complaint; however, we believe the base ROE is solidly in the zone ofreasonableness. Long-term EPS +1-2¢. ~8% EPS CAGR 2026-2030 ex-Millstone contract and ~9% with Millstone.We mark-to-market our model for New England power prices and interest rates with no materialchange.We are still waiting for an update on the Connecticut clean energy RFP which we believeMillstone could be selected for a premium contract, a key driver of the standalone value. .Source: Bloomberg and Jefferies LLC Paul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.com 2Q26 large miss but no impact on FY26 estimates.We forecast $0.66 vs $0.79 Consensus.Consensus is modeling YoY growth vs $0.76 2Q25.Not a material driver for shares. Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.com Valuation: Increase base case +$1/sh to $79.We continue to use a +14% premium for NEE sharesas our D valuation approach.We estimate standalone D is worth $81/sh due to the $3.4Bn net break- Tanner James, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8667 | tjames@jefferies.com Ivana Ergovic * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2175 | iergovic@jefferies.com Brian Russo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8559 | brusso@jefferies.com Jamieson Ward, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2081 | jamieson.ward@jefferies.com The Long View: Dominion Energy Investment Thesis NextEraEnergy announced the merger with Dominion in May 2026.Dominion’s financial outlook had been improving into this announcement aftera turbulent stretch. We see a positive risk/reward in both deal and no-dealscenarios. Dominion benefits from the 2026 Virginia storage mandate whichleads to more capex and earnings growth. In a standalone scenario, D benefitsfrom the NEE break fee and is able to grow EPS at 8-9% vs ~6-7% on astandalone basis. The investment case is centered on Virginia data centersrequiring transmission & generation investments. The unregulated businessvalue is primarily via Millstone nuclear with upside optionality. Upside Scenario,$81, +16% Downside Scenario,$66, -5% Base Case,$79, +13% Upsidecase could be achieved via NextEraEnergy positively re-rating towards its highs of~$95-98/shfrom April-May.NEE data centerannouncements could be a catalyst for returningto the relative highs. NextEra positively re-rates to a +14% premium,our last published JEF base case. This wouldrepresent ~$96/sh for NEE and $79 for D at the0.8138 ratio. There is a $2.67/sh (4%) annualdividend payment in addition. NextEra negatively derates to its relative P/E lowsof ~5% vs utility peers. This would represent ~$81/sh for NEE and $66 for D at the 0.8138 ratio. T