Q2预览：Grasberg项目稳步推进，维持买入评级

IndustrialsMetals & Mining Q2 preview: looking for steady progressat Grasberg. Buy Valuation & Risks Liam FitzpatrickResearch Analyst+44-20-754-13233 Q2 earnings due 23 July We forecast Q2 EBITDA of $2.6bn (Fig 2), slightly above consensus and up on Q1($2.5bn), with higher sales volumes and a higher realised copper price partly offsetby a lower gold price. For Q2, we are broadly in line with company guidance forcopper sales (690m lbs) and net unit costs (224c/lb). We do not anticipate anymaterial changes to unit cost guidance given the recent drop in oil prices. Wecontinue to see attractive value relative to global copper peers and maintain our Buyrating. Following the recent downgrade to Grasberg guidance, we believe the keyfocus for investors will be evidence that the revised ramp-up plan remains on trackand that no further production revisions are required. Cody HaydenResearch Analyst+44-20-754-13230 Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377 We recently revised our copper price assumptions and provided a scenario analysison US copper tariffs. A phased introduction of tariffs on refined copper remains themarket's base case and would be positive for copper, supporting continued importsthrough H2'26, while a decision not to tariff refined copper - either now or in thefuture - could trigger a sharp sell-off. Within, we provide our Q2 preview and a summary of latest company guidance. Grasberg outlook and key focus areas (1) At theGrasbergBlock Cave (GBC), the company commenced the initial ramp-upof blocks PB2/3 at the end of March. With the Q1 results, the company loweredGrasberg 2026/27 production guidance (Fig 5-6) due to an increase in the ratio ofwet drawpoints. As a result, modifications to the chute system used to load ore intoautomated trains are required before the operation can reach full capacity, with thework expected to be largely completed by mid-2027. Expected 2026 productionfrom Grasberg was reduced to 0.8bn lbs of copper (from 1.0bn lbs) and 0.7moz ofgold (from 0.9moz), while 2027 guidance was lowered to 1.2bn lbs of copper (from1.5bn lbs) and 1.0moz of gold (from 1.2moz). (2) In February, FCX announced thatit had entered into a MoU with the Indonesian government for a life-of-resourceextension of operating rights for PTFI in the Grasberg minerals district. Overall, thekey terms are as previously indicated by the company, with an additional 12% staketransfer to the government from 2041/42 being the key element. (3) Given therevised ramp-up schedule at Grasberg,group sales guidancewas reduced by~10% in 2026 to 3.1 bnlbs of copper (from 3.4 bnlbs) and to 0.65 moz of gold (from0.8 moz). 2027-28 copper and gold sales guidance was also adjusted (Fig 3-4). (4) 6 July 2026Metals & MiningFreeport-McMoRan Management reiterated that the brownfieldBagdad 2X expansionproject in the US(incremental copper production of 200-250 mlbs pa, 3-4 year construction phase)couldbe approved in H2'26,with spend on early works and the tailingsinfrastructure already going ahead in 2026. The project's $3.5bn capital budgetremains under review (provided in 2023) and and appears likely to increase to >$4bn. (5) 2026/27capexis currently guided at $4.3/4.5bn (Fig 7), although 2027excludes the potential approval of Bagdad. (6) The company is targeting sulphideleaching volumesof up to 300 mlbs in 2026 from its leaching innovation initiatives(214 mlbs achieved in 2025), up to 400 mlbs in 2027 and 800 mlbs by 2030. Linkedto this, management is targeting an ambitious reduction in US unit costs to 250c in2027 from 305c in 2025. 6 July 2026Metals & MiningFreeport-McMoRan Q2'26 earnings preview & latest guidance 6 July 2026Metals & MiningFreeport-McMoRan 6 July 2026Metals & MiningFreeport-McMoRan 6 July 2026Metals & MiningFreeport-McMoRan Figure 9: Recent cost pressures Figure 10: 2025 site production costs breakdown Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.SeeImportant Disclosures Required by N