从目标到转型：以转型规划为核心的经济战略

Preliminary findings November 2025 Table of contents Executive summary3Setting the scene4Transition planning as an enabler of business growth and long-termresilience5Who we assessed6Transition plans7Setting ambitious climate targets7Detailing decarbonisation levers and actions9Planning for a just transition10Investments in low-carbon solutions12GHG emissions reduction15Conclusions18Brazil and COP30: opportunity for alignment18 Executivesummary Ten years after the Paris Agreement, both national and corporate climate commitmentsare entering a new phase where credibility and delivery define progress.Newanalysis of1,260 keystone companiesby the World Benchmarking Alliance (WBA)reveals that whileclimate ambition is spreading, target quality, investment alignment and social inclusionremain insufficient to deliver change at the pace needed.Keyfindingsinclude: •Supply chaintargetsremain a critical gap:although about 89% of corporateemissions occur within supply chains,only 16% of companies havesetbothnear-and long-term supply chain emissions targets.Yet, evidence shows thatcompanies with more ambitious andcredible targetstend to deliverstrongeremissions performance,underscoringthat credibility drivesrealimpact. •The breadth of leading practice indicates there’s an opportunity to triplelow carbon investments,without major technological, political, or financingbreakthroughs. •While targets continue to expand, absolute emissions remain off track:82%of companies have emitted more than their 1.5°C sectoral pathways allow,accumulating a “carbon debt” of around 2.4 Gt CO₂e since 2019. Yet, companieswith ambitious, credible emissions-reduction targets are significantly more likelyto align with 1.5°Ctrajectories,confirmingthatcredible targetshelpdrivereal-worldimpact. •Few companies are translating just transition commitments into action:fewer than 4% have comprehensive plans and only 1.3% set measurable targetsto address the social impacts of decarbonisation.This gap between ambitionand delivery mirrors government efforts, underscoring the need for a permanentUNFCCC anchor-such as the proposed Belem Action Mechanism to turn justtransition from principle into practice. These findings show that the foundation for credible transition planning is in place, butmust now be scaled, deepened, and financed.The nextphaseis translating ambitioninto investable pathways that align emissions, capital, and people. COP30 in Belémoffers a pivotal opportunity to connect national and corporate transition strategies,advancejust transition frameworks and unlock the financial architecture needed fordelivery.If ambition, credibility and inclusion progress together, transition planning canevolve from a compliance exercise into a driver of competitiveness, enabling economiesthat are not only low-carbon but also resilient, fair and future-ready. Setting the scene The2025 UNFCCC NDC Synthesis Reportconfirms that governments’ climate ambitionisexpanding,but implementation is lagging. Ten years after the Paris Agreement,national and corporate commitments enter a phase where credibility and delivery (notonly ambition) are defining progress. Across governments, 89% of new NDCs now cover economy-wide emissions, and 97%include legal and policy frameworks that support their implementation,showing thattransition planning has entered the heart of national economic governance. Yet theoverall emissions trajectory implied by current NDCs stated ambition would remain 17–24% below 2019 levels by 2035, off-track for meeting the 1.5 °C temperature target. Thisneeds to be corrected as there is a clear link between ambitious target setting anddeliveryemerging from the private sector Among1,260keystone companiesassessed by theWorld Benchmarking Alliance(WBA),only17%have a near-term target for their operational emissions aligned with a1.5 °C pathway. Using consistent company emission time series between 2019 and 2024we found that the higher the target ambition the likelier the company is to deliver real-world emissions reductions in line with a 1.5C budget. The convergence between NDCs and transition planning is unmistakable. Governmentsincreasingly require whole of economy strategies, while companies are expected todemonstrate whole of value chain accountability.The NDC Synthesis Report indicatesthat 75% of Parties quantified financial needs amounting to roughly USD 2 trillion,yet WBA finds that only 25% of companies disclose low-carbon investmentfigures.This alignment gap is now one of the defining challenges to translatingclimate ambition to investment and action. Transition planning as an enabler of businessgrowth and long-term resilience Transition plans are not climate appendices; they areeconomic blueprintsfor longterm resilience and a new industrial era. In line with the perspectives presentedin the latest report by the Chair of the UN HLEGon the Net Zero Emissions Commitments of Non‑state Entities,Winning the Future,ouranalysis alsoshowsthatc