空间探索技术公司：太空通用思维中的时光机——启动覆盖，目标价239美元

Space Exploration Technologies Corporation Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Nestor Wester+44 20 7676 7067nestor.wester@bernsteinsg.com Price Target SPCX 239.00 USD Ghilad Davide Holzer+1 917 344 8540ghilad-davide.holzer@bernsteinsg.com Space Exploration Technologies Corporation: Doing Time in theUniversal Mind - Initiate at Outperform; Target Price $239 We initiate coverage on SpaceX at Outperform - target $239. The case for SpaceX dependson success of its space launch capabilities (particularly Starship), with value creation mainlyfrom AI through orbital data centers. Our AI growth trajectory lags company expectationsfrom our more conservative Starship launch ramp (we model roughly 3,500 in 2031). Thecase for a multi-trillion dollar valuation is about “if” not “when”, for orbital data center plans.Starship, takes rocket capacity up by a factor of four from the current Falcon 9, and addsfull reuse (both stages). Full reuse would enable launch rates far beyond any competitors. Itshould be demonstrated later this year. The next launches will be important to follow. Orbital data centers eliminate costs of power, cooling, maintenance, land, and more. Weexpect economics to work as a lower cost solution for AI compute. Although there is non-trivial engineering work, we see no fundamental technical roadblocks. This is not newscience. If SpaceX can deliver compute at large scale with lower costs than terrestrial, profitpotential should readily move to the hundreds of billions of dollars. Of our $404bn in 2031EBITDA, $284bn is AI with rapid growth thereafter. Should SpaceX significantly advance itsIntelligence capabilities (e.g., Cursor acquisition), there would be upside. In Connectivity, Starlink is on a global growth trajectory as it expands offerings and delivershigh margins. Expect high growth in global consumer and enterprise broadband. We aremore cautious on the direct-to-device mobile business, which will require a terrestrialcomponent. Should SpaceX succeed as an MVNO, there would be upside to our numbers. Investment Implications We rate SPCX Outperform, TP $239, on sum of the parts applied to 2031 EBITDA for eachsegment, assuming a one year delay on orbital data center launches and more cautious viewon D2D mobile. We use late stage venture discount rates, 25% and 35%, respectively, forConnectivity and AI. Key risks we see are Starship launch ramp, semiconductor availability,and long-term compute demand. We show bear cases for longer delays. Table Of Contents Portfolio Manager’s Summary............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2A unique vision: Making Humanity Multiplanetary........................................................................................................................................................7Space - The Enabler of Everything................................................................................................................................................................................. 11Connectivity - Starlink leadership today, with much more tomorrow.................................................................................................................36AI - The primary driver of long term value with orbital data centers...................................................................................................................59Financials..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................75Valuation................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 77Potential Risks and Governance......................................................................................................................................................................................81Executive team....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 83 DETAILS PORTFOLIO MANAGER’S SUMMARY WHERE WE START SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk •SpaceX vision.The vision for SpaceX has been at the center of the company’s growth. That vision is to make lifemultiplanetary, with an explicit goal from the beginning of creating civilization on Mars. The vision has taken the companythrough stages in which it has revolutionized space launch. It has been the first to make space launch truly a scalable,commercial enterprise. •Where SpaceX is today. Today, SpaceX has two strong b