启动弗沃能源（FRVO）覆盖，给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价47美元/股

Sunaina Ocalan.+1 917 344 8503sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com Anshika Bajpai+1 917 344 8306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com Price Target FRVO 47.00 USD Minnie Xu+1 917 344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com Heat and Raise… initiating on Fervo Energy with an Outperformrating We initiate coverage on Fervo Energy with an Outperform rating and a target price of $47/share. Close Date5 Jun 2026FRVO Close Price (USD)37.22Price Target (USD)47.00Upside/(Downside)26%52-Week Range42.65/34.27SPX7,383.74FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)10,945EV (USD) (M)11,936 The opportunity in a sentence:EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) leverages the trillionsof dollars spent drilling & completing shale gas & oil wells and applies the technology toabundant geothermal resources which can cycle steam unexposed to the surface through asimple exchange system generating small-footprint, quick-to-market clean secure baseloadelectricity. The opportunity in a checklist (Exhibit 4). EGS delivers electricity that is (1) “green” (lowCO2), (2) baseload, (3) domestically secure, (4) well located, (5) quicker to market and (6) costcompetitive. The opportunity in a visual nutshell (Exhibit 8 to Exhibit 10).A surface facility the sizeof a museum wing can extract geothermal energy from an area the size of Central Park andsupport 30 years of residential demand of half a million Americans. The opportunity on a napkin (Exhibit 11).Current modular economics (50 MW) deploy ~$200 mln of capex to deliver ~$40 mln of EBITDA generating ~$400 mln of NPV. The complete story follows.The demand for US power is rapidly inflecting.Afterdecades of flat US power demand growth, a number of long-term drivers (including AI datacenters) are changing that.Not all power is created equal.Electrons are a commodity,but the delivery of electricity is not - clean baseload power will command a premium price.Geothermal power satisfies.EGS leverages a previous revolution.Enhanced GeothermalSystems (EGS) leverage trillions of dollars of R&D spend from the shale industry.EGSleverages proven existing power generation technology(ORCs). Fervo Energyhas (1) a proven product, (2) locked-in contracts (PPAs of ~600 MWsupporting ~$7 bln of revenue), (3) intellectual property, and (4) early mover advantage (5)Leases of ~600,000 acres with ~40GW of heat in place. Key opportunities.2026 catalysts include (1) start of commercial operations at CapeStation I (4Q), (2) validation of 15 MW wells, and (3) PPA and permitting momentum. Weforecast Fervo Energy capacity at 1.05 GW in 2030 and 5 GW in 2035. We forecast FervoUS geothermal power to outpace the growth of all US nuclear power in both 2030 and 2035.Learning curve effects and a conservative culture point towards Fervo exceeding targets. Wealso believe in the ability of EGS to scale faster than conventional geothermal. Key risks.Poor project execution represents the primary risk given the early mover status ofthis technology. Execution risk is mitigated by modular design philosophy. Regulatory riskscould slow future projects, which we believe is mitigated by bilateral support for EGS. Long-term well performance could disappoint requiring higher capital in the out years. Concernsaround seismicity and water access have been raised but are manageable in our view. Investment Implications We are Outperform on Fervo with a price target of $47/share.Conventional geothermalhas been slow to scale largely because of “exploration” risk - needing to find a naturallypermeable spot. Enhanced Geothermal takes the exploration risk out since it’s a man-madefracked reservoir. Table Of Contents Power demand is inflecting..................................................................................................................................................................................................4How EGS geothermal works................................................................................................................................................................................................6The opportunity in a visual nutshell................................................................................................................................................................................ 10Valuation................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13Sanitizing capital forecasts................................................................................................................................................................................................16Leadership team.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18Geothermal power is in demand......