腾讯控股Hy3模型发布点评

China Internet Tencent Holdings Ltd Charles Gou+852 2123 2618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Min-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 700.HK 780.00 HKD Hyrum Caesar+81 3 6777 6979hyrum.caesar@bernsteinsg.com Tencent: Two dots make a line? Quick thoughts on hy3 Hy3 officially released.On July 6, Tencent announced the official release of its Hy3 model.10 weeks removed from the preview release, the updated model (still 295bn parameters,21bn active) delivered meaningful improvements across key performance metrics. Thebenchmark slate Tencent published pointed to a model that delivered GLM-5.1 tier reasoningcapabilities across tool call stability, hallucination control (12.5% to 5.4%), and multi-turnretention (MRCR 42.9% vs. 75.1%)… while deprioritising heavy-duty coding and generalreasoning. The use of GQA also leaves room for improvement, for example by incorporatingKV cache compression techniques like MLA or DSA. A step in the right direction.Hy3 is not frontier, but GLM-5.1 level output acrosscapabilities Tencent needs to build agentic services across its ecosystems is a credible stepforward. We argued a couple of months ago that the significance of Hy3 was that it was thefirst act of Tencent’s new AI team, and that having a credible pre-training, RL, and eval stackwas as important for Tencent as headline parameter counts. The improvements made in thefinal Hy3 release felt confirmatory of that view. The benchmark results Tencent publishedalso puts Hy3 clearly ahead of Minimax’s M3 model. We still think a next iteration of Tencent’smodel (hopefully featuring a new pre-train) by late 2026 or early 2027 represents a sensiblebase case for the next step forward.More reports @wechat: Hillwood2024 The capex debate is what it is, token spend fears feel overdone.Internet analystsglobally have spent the past year watching their companies become more asset-heavy.Tencent has guided for capex to rise sequentially over the course of 2026, with associatedimplications for D&A costs. Where we think the bear case for Tencent’s AI efforts has becomeoverly punitive relates to token spend. Chatbot conversations typically consume hundreds oftokens, while agentic transactions require tens of thousands. Said differently, Tencent’s tokenconsumption only goes parabolic if agentic transaction volume and GMV take off. A time lagis likely between engagement and monetisation growth, but history suggests the latter is amatter of when not if. Consumer AI monetization - the US vs. China.Agentic commerce hype came and went quickly in the US. In contrastwith the US, where Tiktok spent years trying to train consumers to click on shopping links, every kind of transactional intentalready exists within China’s Internet platforms. For Tencent, we expect the agentic AI roll-out to happen gradually, and expectmonetisation to come via merchants (e.g. by gating access to and charging for agentic AI traffic) rather than consumers (seeDoubao paying user ratios hovering around… zero). Merchants subscribing to the new agentic AI service get more traffic, moreAI tools, more connectivity with different parts of Weixin… while those that don’t get less of each. Solving the harder problem?In our minds, the main conflict inherent to Tencent’s AI efforts is the following. The company’sextensively (and expensively) retooled AI team appears now to have made real progress realigning model training infra, but fora variety of reasons does not appear to get access to Weixin data. Meanwhile, our understanding is that the upcoming WeixinAI agent was built by the Weixin team independently of the former group. We assume this impasse will eventually be resolvedthrough executive action… but why that hasn’t already happened is probably a fair question for Tencent management. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Tencent Outperform (PT HK$780). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Tencent Holdings Ltd We value Te