绿色转型、能源替代与韩国DSGE模型中的宏观经济动态

Green Transition, Energy Substitution,and Macroeconomic Dynamics in aDSGE Model for Korea Eunseong Ma, Joonseok Oh,Byung Goog Park, Kyounghoon Park 2026. 6 Green Transition, Energy Substitution,and Macroeconomic Dynamics in aDSGE Model for Korea Eunseong Ma∗, Joonseok Oh∗∗, Byung Goog Park∗∗∗ Kyounghoon Park† The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the officialviews of the Bank of Korea. When reporting or citing this paper, the authors’ names shouldalways be explicitly stated. Contents I.Introduction···························································1 II.Model····································································7 III.Calibration·····························································20 IV.Transmission of Macro Shocks································24 V.Discussion·····························································41 VI.Monetary Policy Implications···································49 VII.Conclusion···························································56 A.Appendix·······························································61 Green Transition, Energy Substitution, andMacroeconomic Dynamics in a DSGE Model forKorea We study how macroeconomic and energy-related shocks, together with climate-policy design, affect output, inflation, the energy mix, emissions, and distribution in asmall energy-importing economy such as Korea. We develop a small open-economyDSGE model with two types of energy: imported fossil-based (“brown”) energy anddomestically produced renewable (“green”) energy. Households directly consumea bundle of brown and green energy, and firms use the same energy composite inproduction. This structure allows aggregate shocks and policies—operating throughthe relative price of brown versus green energy—to feed directly into consumptionchoices, firms’ input mix and marginal costs, and hence inflation and output dy-namics. Quantitatively, green-technology shocks are expansionary, disinflationary,and carbon-reducing, whereas UIP and brown-energy price shocks are also carbon-reducing but at the cost of stagflation. For a given carbon-tax path, the allocation ofrevenues has first-order effects on both the output and the inflation dynamics. Mone-tary policy mainly allocates the burden of shocks between output and inflation, withonly minor effects on emissions. The elasticity of substitution between brown andgreen energy is crucial for the output–emissions trade-off. Keywords:Green transition, Energy substitution, Carbon tax, Monetary policy JEL Classification:Q43, H23, E32, E52 I.Introduction Over the past three decades, South Korea’s greenhouse gas emissions have risensharply, increasing by more than about 100 percent relative to 1990 and reachingroughly around 733 Mt CO2-eq in 2018, before declining to around 649 Mt CO2-eq in 2023. While this recent downward trend is encouraging, achieving the 2030Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target—a reduction of about 40 per-cent relative to 2018 levels—will require a profound restructuring of the country’senergy system. Figure 1 illustrates the evolution of Korea’s electricity generationmix by energy source over the period 2000–2024.1)As shown in the figure, Ko-rea’s energy mix remains dominated by coal and natural gas, complemented bynuclear power and a still modest share of renewable energy. Even though the shareof non-carbon energy has been rising steadily,2)the renewable energy still remainswell below the levels observed in many developed economies.3) In this context, policymakers need a quantitative framework that links macroeco- nomic and environmental outcomes to macroeconomic and energy-related shocks.We develop such a unified framework for a small, energy-importing economy suchas Korea and use it to study how these shocks affect output, inflation, the energy mix,and emissions. Within this framework, we analyze fiscal policy with a focus on thedesign and implementation of a carbon tax and examine the associated implicationsfor monetary policy. We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a smallopen economy with two types of energy: fossil-based “brown” energy and renewable“green” energy. The model is calibrated to key features of the Korean economy,where heavy reliance on imported energy, sizable exchange-rate movements, andexposure to global financial conditions are central for understanding business-cycledynamics and energy mix. The economy also features two types of households—Ricardian (optimizing) and hand-to-mouth (HtM)—who differ in their ability tosmooth consumption over time. Both types consume a composite of non-energygoods and energy services, where energy services are themselves a bundle of brownand green energy. This structure makes relative energy prices and climate policies(carbon taxes, green subsidies) directly relevant for household choices over brownversus green energy, while heterogeneity in financi