繁荣之后的移民：美国人将在2026年迁移到哪里

Table of Contents The Geography of Domestic Migration3 Interstate Flows: Which States Gained and Lost Residents?3 Zooming In: Net Migration Across Metro Boundaries7 Florida Dominates Large Metros9 The Affordability Factor10 Demographics Over Dollars The New Migration Map: Strategic Implications14 Key Takeaways ●Smaller states led by South Carolina and Delaware posted the largest netmigration gains relative to population in 2025.●Among the six most populous states, only Florida recorded meaningful netinflows.●New York, Illinois, and California kept losing residents, though outmigrationslowed from recent years.●Vermont, a COVID-era relocation hotspot, saw the biggest outflow relative topopulation.●State-level trends hid local variation: Phoenix led major metros, and Dallasdrew inflows as Houston lost residents.●Among large CBSAs (500,000+ residents), mid-sized Florida metros dominated,driven mostly by in-state moves.●Affordability still drives relocation – but movers increasingly favor older,established communities with larger 65+ populations. The Geography of Domestic Migration During the pandemic and its aftermath, Americans were on the move. Millions leftexpensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt, whileboomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with theinflux of new residents. That wave of relocation has since cooled, as return-to-officemandates, highermortgage rates, and a shrinking affordabilitygapbetween coastal cities and manyCOVID-era hotspots have dampened the incentive to move. But even in a slowermarket, domestic migration remains one of the most powerful forces shaping localeconomies, housing markets, and consumer demand. This report leverages AI-powered location analytics to examine the relocationpatterns reshaping the United States in 2026 – where Americans are moving, thedemographic and economic forces driving those decisions, and how retailers,investors, developers, and policymakers can respond to the opportunities andchallenges created by these shifts. Which major metros are attracting the most new residents? Which pandemic-erastandouts have seen growth stall or reverse? And what factors best predict a largemetro area's domestic migration growth potential in 2026? Interstate Flows: Which States Gained and LostResidents? South Carolina and Delaware Set the Pace The latest statewide migration data shows that the slower relocation pace observed in2024 persisted into 2025. No state recorded net inflows or outflows exceeding 0.7% ofits starting population. And while several smaller states continued to attract newresidents at meaningful rates, none of the nation's six most populous states saw netin-migration exceed 0.2%. Among those smaller states,South CarolinaandDelawareled the nation with netin-migration equal to 0.7% of their populations, followed byIdaho(0.6%),Maine(0.5%),Tennessee(0.4%), andNorth Carolina(0.3%). For most of these states,migration accelerated relative to 2024, though Delaware's inflow rate moderatedslightly and North Carolina held steady. Despite their differences, these states tend to offer a similar mix of lifestyle amenities,relatively low congestion, and opportunities for growth. Many also benefit frombusiness-friendlyclimates, favorabletaxpolicies, or housing costs that remainattractive relative to the higher-cost markets from which they draw new residents. Vermont Trails Behind At the other end of the spectrum wasVermont, which saw the nation’s largest netoutflow as share of population in 2025, losing 0.4% of its population to domesticrelocation. The decline deepens a reversal thatfirst emerged in 2024, when the stateswung to a net loss of 0.2%, after attracting inflows of 0.8% and 0.5% in 2022 and2023, respectively. Vermont's reversal likely reflects a combination of factors, including return-to-officemandates and the waningappealof remote work.Housingundersupply in the statemay havealsocontributed, illustrating how important infrastructure investments areto sustaining migration gains over time. Florida Sees Accelerated Inflow as Legacy Exodus States SlowLosses Among the nation's six most populous states,Floridawas the only one to seeaccelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents equal to 0.2% of itsstarting population, up from 0.1% the year before.Texas, by contrast, slowed from0.1% net in-migration in 2024 to essentiallyflat in 2025, highlighting the cooling ofwhat was once one of the country's strongest pandemic-era migration magnets. Meanwhile, the legacy "exodus" states continue to lose residents, but at a slower pacethan in previous years.IllinoisandCaliforniahave seen their migration deficitssteadily narrow, with further improvement in 2025. Between 2022 and 2025, Illinoismoved from -0.8%→-0.2%→-0.2%→-0.1%, while California moved from -0.9%→ -0.4%→-0.3%→-0.2%. And thoughNew Yorkhas held steady at -0.2% over the pasttwo years, this marks a significant moderation from