季度展望：关于美国和全球经济部门影响以及投资环境的洞察

Insights on the US and global economysector implications, and investing landscape Introduction financial executives, and investors together to take stock of the globaleconomy. This year, we joined those conversations as markets weighedthe economic fallout from the Iran military conflict, the risk of more in a rare moment: two powerful forces are pushing growth and inflation inopposite directions. Even before the latest military escalation in the Middle East, AItransformation was already reshaping business models and had become military conflict has disrupted oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) flowsthrough the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global daily oil demand and LNG passes.1Fatih Birol, Executive Director of theInternational Energy Agency2and energy veteran Daniel Yergin called Added to that, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) energy exportersare also a critical lynchpin in the petrochemical industry and the globalfertilizer supply chain. A prolonged disruption to the supply of critical Even if a long-term settlement is reached soon, we believe the impactof the military conflict is likely to have a long tail, resulting in rollingsupply shocks that could snarl global supply chains for months to come. The logistical challenges alone—clearing laden tankers from the Gulf,rerouting ballasting vessels to port, restarting shut-in production—mean heightened uncertainty, but by the limits of traditional diversificationstrategies. Companies and investors should reassess how the shock isreshaping their key markets and what that means for capital allocation. shock playing out across the US, Eurozone, Asia, and Latin America? opportunities across energy, industrials, consumer markets,technology, financial services, and healthcare? investors should be thinking about resilience, growth investment, andthe deployment of capital from here? Global scenarios andregional outlook truncate the most severe downside risks to the global economy, it wouldlikely do little more than extend the ceasefire by 60 days and opennegotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Our baseline scenario stillassumes a protracted conflict, marked by intermittent skirmishes andonly a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Under this scenario, within Iran (including Kharg Island) and around the Gulf pushes WTIpotentially into the $96-$100 range. Policymakers would face a difficulttradeoff: tighter monetary policy to contain inflation would further curbdemand, while fiscal support for households and firms would likely need In a severe scenario involving ground troops, new actors, or a full closureof both the Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab straits, WTI hovers between$120-$150 and global GDP decelerates to about 2.2%, likely tipping theworld into recession. Private demand would slow sharply as financial United States In the US, our baseline trims roughly 0.2 percentage points off GDPand nudges unemployment modestly higher, lowering our2026 growthforecastfrom 2.1% to 1.9%. The muted impact reflects two forces. First,the shale revolution has made the country a major energy producer, modest 1.6% annualized rate, yet the underlying drivers were mostlyAI-led. Software and computing investment surged nearly 24% year overyear, while other categories of business capital expenditure declined for a to the downside should the military conflict in Iran persist along ourbaseline scenario. Higher energy prices are lifting headline inflation and may begin to bleed into core measures (see figure 3).6For households,higher fuel and food costs crowd out discretionary spending. Early retail AI-led investment could also hit constraints. Unlike prior investment cycles, today’s AI-led capex boom is unusually energy-avaricious, relyingon massive compute infrastructure and power hungry data centers. Asustained energy shock risks increasing the operating burden for datacenters and compute infrastructure, potentially constraining near-term to rise—driven in part by tech, now expected to deliver 43% earningsgrowth in 2026.8However, they appear priced for a supply shock that fades relatively quickly rather than a growth shock that persists. That mayprove correct. But if disruption drags on, the current oil supply shock likely have to wait, as economic data will ultimately drive the Fed’s nextmove. The April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetingalready marked a shift in tone, signaling that the easing cycle is likely tobe pushed further into the future. In our view, a prolonged rise in energyprices would delay rate cuts from later this year to early next year. A Euro area shock given their dependence on imported energy. In our baseline, Euroarea GDP growth slows to around 0.5% in 2026, down from 0.9% inthe prior forecast. Italy and Germany look more exposed due to higher Inflation is already reaccelerating. Euro area annual inflation climbed to3% in April 2026, the highest since September 2023, up from 2.6% inMarch, with further pass-