中国电力发展现状和发展展望报告

2025年9月September 2025 I Development Status 发展展望Development Outlook II (I)电力供应结构持续优化Power supply structure is optimized continuously 截至2024年底，中国大陆发电装机容量33.5亿千瓦，其中非化石能源发电装机19.5亿千瓦，占比58.2%；风、光发电累计装机14.1亿千瓦，提前6年实现习近平主席在气候雄心大会上承诺的“到2030年中国风电、太阳能发电总装机容量达到12亿千瓦以上”目标。By the end of 2024, the installed power generation capacity in mainland China reached3,350 GW,of which the installed power generation capacity of non-fossil energy was1,950 GW, accounting for58.2%. The cumulativeinstalled power generation capacity of wind and solar energy was1,410 GW, achieving the goal promised by PresidentXi Jinping at the Climate Ambition Summit six years ahead of schedule, which is "by 2030, the total installed powergeneration capacity of wind and solar power in China will reach over 1.2 billion kilowatts". 58.2% Proportion of installed power generation capacity of non-fossil energy in the country's total installed capacity 520 GW Grid-connected installed power generationcapacity of wind power 890 GWGrid-connected installed power generation capacity of solar power 440 GWGrid-connected installed power generation capacity of hydropower 2024年，全年新增发电装机容量4.3亿千瓦，再创历史新高。其中，新增风光装机3.6亿千瓦，占全球新增风光装机的63%。 In 2024, the newly added installed power generation capacity was430 GW, reaching a new historicalhigh. The newly added installed capacity of wind and solar power was360 GW, accounting for63%of theglobal newly added installed capacity of wind and solar power. (II)电力消费方式发生深刻变革Power consumption undergoes profound changes 2024年，中国大陆全社会用电量约9.85万亿千瓦时，占全球的比重超过30%。2020年~2024年，全社会用电量年均增长7.0%，电力消费弹性系数连续几年均大于1.0。 In 2024, the electricity consumption in mainland China was9850 TWh, accounting for over30%of the globalelectricity consumption. The growth rate of electricity consumption is7.0%on average from 2020 to 2024, whichis more than GDP growth rate. 当前，中国电能占终端能源消费比重提升至29%，人均用电量接近7000千瓦时/人，处于全球前列。新能源汽车产销量分别达1288.8万辆和1286.6万辆，连续10年位居全球第一。 Currently, China's electricity accounts for29%of the total final energy consumption, and theelectricity consumption per capita is close to7,000 kWh, being at the forefront of the world. Theproductionand sales of new energy vehicles reached 12.888 million and 12.866 millionrespectively, ranking first in the world for 10 consecutive years. (III)技术创新带动成本大幅下降Technological innovation drives a significant cost reduction 全球最大的26兆瓦级海上风电机组顺利下线，晶硅-钙钛矿叠层电池光电转换效率达到34.6%，刷新世界纪录；新一代核电、特高压输电等领域装备技术不断突破。 The world's largest26-megawattoffshore wind turbine have rolled off the production line. Thephotoelectric conversion efficiency of the crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem battery reached34.6%,thus breaking the world record. The equipment technologies in fields such as new-generation nuclear power and ultra-high voltage power transmission continue to makebreakthroughs. 风电、光伏发电开发成本较十年前分别下降了60%和80%，光伏组件、风力发电等装备和关键零部件出口200多个国家和地区，约占全球市场份额的70%。过去十年，中国对全球非化石能源消费增长贡献度超过40%，为推动世界能源绿色低碳转型贡献了中国力量。The development costs of wind power and photovoltaic power generation have decreased by60%and 80%respectively compared with ten years ago. Equipment and key components such as photovoltaicmodules and wind power generation are exported to more than 200 countries and regions, accounting forabout70%of the global market share. In the past decade, China's contribution to the growth of globalnon-fossil energy consumption has exceeded40%, and it has contributed Chinese strength to promotingthe green and low-carbon transformation of the world's energy. (IV)体制机制改革激发市场活力Institutional and mechanism reform stimulates market vitality 2024年，中国大陆市场交易电量约6.18万亿千瓦时，占用电量比重达到62.7%。目前已有六个省级现货市场和省间现货市场转入正式运行，中长期、辅助服务市场实现全覆盖。全年核发绿证47.34亿个，交易绿证4.46亿个；各电力交易中心累计完成绿色电力交易电量2336亿千瓦时。In 2024, the electricity market transactions reached6180 TWh,accounting for62.7%of total consumption. Currently, six provincial and inter-provincial spot markets have been officially putinto operation, the long-term trading and ancillary service markets have been full coverage.4.734billiongreen electricity certificate were issued and446 millionwere traded,233.6 TWhgreenelectricity were transacted in all power exchange centers. 中国碳排放权交易市场于2021年7月启动上线交易，是全球覆盖温室气体排放量最大的市场，并逐渐从发电行业扩大至钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼等行业。截至2024年底，中国全国碳市场配额累计成交量达6.3亿吨，累计成交额超430亿元。 The national carbon market started online trading on July 2021, which is the world’slargest emissions trading system, and gradually expanded from power to steel, cement,aluminum industries. Till the end of 2024, the total trading volume had reached630 milliontonnes, with turnover ofRMB43 billion. I 发展展望Development OutlookII (I)中国电力需求还将保持持续增长China’selectricity demand will maintain sustained growth 未来中国经济仍将保持中高速增长，工业、交通、建筑等领域将提高电力消费比重，实现减污降碳；算力基础设施、新能源汽车、电制氢等将成为拉动电力需求增长的新动能。预计未来10年，中国全社会用电量年均增加超5000亿千瓦时。 China’s economy will continue to maintain a medium growth rate, and industry, transportation,and construction will increase the electricity consumption to achieve pollution and carbon reduction.Computing infrastructure, new energy vehic