半导体：2026年AI市场行情的核心引擎与风险

Allianz Research|25June2026Thesemiconductorpremium: EMequityand theconcentrationriskwithin In Summary Ludovic SubranChief Investment Officer andChief Economistludovic.subran@allianz.com •Semiconductors are the backbone of the 2026 AI rally.Capital investment isoverwhelmingly directed at AI infrastructure, and the datacentersdoing the heavy lifting runentirely on chips. The numbers speak for themselves:the Philadelphia semiconductor index isup +90% YTD–twelvetimes the S&P 500's +7.5%-despite acouple ofrecentsell-offepisodesin June. In emerging markets,which concentrate most of thesupplychain,marketslikeSouthKorea and Taiwan areup +110% and +60%this year. Alexander HirtHead ofEquity &CreditResearchalexander.hirt@allianz.com Ano KuhanathanHead ofCorporate Researchano.kuhanathan @allianz-trade.com •Concentration is the flipside of the boombut fundamentals are strong.Concentration ismost acute inEMs, where dependence on a single industry is now extreme.If thechipssectordisappoints, the re-rating could be brutal. But the earnings are real and lopsidedly so:chipsdeliver 13% of S&P 500 profits on just 5% of sales, half ofSouthKorea's profits on a fifth of itssales and over 70% of Taiwan's earnings and revenue alike. Ferocious demand colliding withsupply bottlenecks from Middle East tensionsare keeping prices sky-high. Guillaume DejeanSeniorSectorAdvisorguillaume.dejean @allianz-trade.com •The bull case still stands on five pillars.First, hyperscalers show no sign of easing off:Upward capex guidance in Q1 points to a still-aggressive stance that should lift Asianchipmakers' profits by a remarkable +70% CAGR through 2026-2029. Second, the demandpipeline looks structurally solid:Broader AI diffusion, the corporate shift to agentic platformsand the memory-hungry new chip generation all reinforce one another. Third, the moat is real:capital and expertiseareneeded to build a modern foundry,keep competition at bay andpricing power intact. Fourth, valuations arecompellingas based on solid earnings trajectory,and recent sell-offsoffer new entry point on top picks.And fifth, in the over-concentrated EMspace,semiconductorsensuregeography and supply-chain position diversification,with anattractive trade-off compared to developed market s. •But strong convictionsdo not mean complacency:Four risks could unsettle the rally overthe next 12-24 months.First, a Middle East re-escalation could disrupt energy routed to Asia,forcing production halts–temporary or not. Second, bottlenecks in the Asian supply chain forinputs critical to data-centerfleets could lift costs and lengthen lead times, throttling AI capexmomentum. Third, a timing mismatch looms:New supply could come online just as capitalallocation decelerates, should a fresh rate cycle take hold in the US or Europe. Fourth,competition is sharpening fast–Beijing is piling on funds and pressure to drive chip self-sufficiency(70% target in AI chips in 2026)and a bigger global footprint for its champions.Contrary towhat market volatility suggest, we do not see lower inference cost to be a negativedriver formemory chip business,but rathera guarantee of a sustainable book order ifit comeswith stronger AI diffusion and usage. Semiconductorsaredrivingthe 2026 AIequityrally–andconcentrating itsrisk Equity markets are roaring back in 2026, with semiconductors as the primary engine.A brutal tech sell-off eruptedlast autumn, fueled by a rotation out of hyperscalers as the "AI bubble" narrative gained traction.Thepain extendedwell into this year as frontier AI models–armed with native Customer Relationship Management (CRM),cybersecurity anddata-processing capabilities–triggered a sharp de-rating of traditional software names suddenlyfighting for relevance. Yet through the storm, one segment barely flinched: semiconductors. Quarter after quarter,chip makers delivered earnings that kept beating expectations, rewarding investors who held their nerve withrelentless outperformance. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tells the story plainly,up90% ytd, dwarfing theS&P 500's modest +7.5% gain and cementing semis as the single biggest beneficiary of the AI equity rally. But themost eye-catching trade of this cycle is unfolding not in the US but across emerging markets:TheMSCI EM indexhas surged +23.2% YTD, and the engine behind that re-rating is, again, semiconductors as Asian chip and advancedpackaging names ride the same AI capex supercycle.The investment wave is global and equity markets are pricingit that way. Semiconductors have quietly become the backbone of global equity markets–and a structural vulnerability attheir core. Taiwan and SouthKorea stand in a league of their own.Between them, they concentrate the world'smost critical foundry capacity and their stock markets reflect it starkly–Taiwan's semiconductor sector commandsa 75% market cap share of its equity universe,SouthKorea's a still-commanding 39%, dwarfing every other majorindex. Yet the paradox lies in the revenue line