耐克2026财年第四季度展望：进入加时赛？

Nike, Inc. 26 June 2026 RatingHold NKEUS NKE.N United States Apparel, Footwear & Textiles Headed Into Overtime? 4Q26 Preview Research Analyst+1-212-250-0590 has compressedback topre-1Q26levels),withfocussquarelyonNAwholesalesell-through, China trends, and the likelihood of FY27 guidance. On the latter, wedo not expect a formal FY27 outlook until the company's Fall investor day,particularly in light of theunexpected CFO transition announced earlierthis week(which could further delay timing). ResearchAssociate+1-212-250-9179 Research Associate+1-212-250-3165 Weapproach4Qwithacautious stance.Ourchannel checkssuggest elevatedinventory levels in EMEA and muted demandoutsideof keyrunning franchises,limiting broader category momentum.Weare also cautious on Greater China,whererisk skewsto additional negative top-line revisions amid a potential sharper-than-expected pullback from wholesale partners.Similarly investors areoutlook provided three months ago (currently down LSD%), reflecting whatlastquarter. Price target (USD) In our view, the key debate for the print will center on the durability of NorthAmerica growth,particularlyasNKElaps prior distributiongainsand valuechannel liquidation.We lower our price target to $43 (from $51),reflecting a resetin our target multiple in line with levels observed during last year's turnaroundphase. With a clear top-line inflection still several quarters away, we remain on thesidelines. Top-Line: We model total reported sales -2.5% YOY (prior -2.9%; Street-2.3%; guidance-2% to -4%) and cFX sales -4.5% YOY (prior -4.4%; Street-3.9%; implied guidance -4% to -6%).By region, we are forecasting NA+4.8%, EMEA -7.6%, China -20.8%, and APLA -5.3% (all cFX). Margins/EPS: We now model gross margin down 25 bps YOY to 40.0%(prior 39.7%; Street 40.0%; guidance-75bps to-25bps excluding tariffrefunds). We model SG&A dollars down 0.5% YOY (prior +1.1%; Street-1.1%; guidance "flat to down slightly"), taking our EPS to $0.10 (prior$0.07; Street $0.13). FY27 Guidance: While we don't expect NKE to guide FY27, we thinkmanagement would broadly reiterateprior expectations for:1)movetothe low end of the -LSD% revenue growth over the remaining CY26quarters (i.e., 1Q27-2Q27) and 2) EBIT margins inflecting in 2Q27.Wenow model reported revenues down -2.0% (prior -0.9%; Street +0.5%) IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompanies coveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhavea conflictof interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making theirinvestmentdecision. Nike, Inc. growth in 2H27. Our EPS stays at $1.64 (Street $1.85), with slightlybetterGPM offset by lower revenues. (prior33x).Our price target decreases afteraligning our target multipleback to be more in-line with prior levels during the turnaround last year.Upside risks include a faster return to growth in China, less GPMcompression than expected, and a NKE Direct revenue inflection.Downside risks include stalling growth in NA, signs of elevated wholesaleinventory,and elasticity impacts fromtariff-driven price increases. Anypotential changestotheCY26outlookgiven lastquarterorplansfor the Investor Day.Timeline of the Sport Offense being rolled out to other sports in FY27Further detail on NKE's plan to reduce wholesale sell-in in China.Response to World Cup product so far.Use of proceeds from tariff refunds EstimateChangesandDBvs.Consensus Nike, Inc. Nike, Inc. Nike, Inc. Appendix 1 exchanges via Reuters,Bloombergand othervendors.Otherinformation is sourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources Important Disclosures Required by U.S.Regulators2 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments issued by this company. bankingorfinancialadvisoryserviceswithinthepastyear. 8 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment bankingservices from this company in the next three months. 14 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company within the past year for non-investment banking related services. 15 - This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year during which time it receivedinvestment banking services. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.Regulators2 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments issued by this company. 24 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) is or has been over the previous 12 months party to an agreement with thecompany relating to the provision of services set out in Sections A and B of Annex I of Directive 2014/65/EU, or hasovertheprevious12monthsbeenobliged orentitled(as applicable)topayorreceivecompensation relatingtotheprovision of ser