全球存储：美光科技2026财年第三季度短期强劲势头

Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Micron 3QFY26: Strong near-term momentum but SCAs thus farstill can't avoid cyclicality Good details on SCAs but limited ASP upside & limited deposits?Micron announced16 Strategic Customer Agreements (SCA) that typically last 5 years & cover 20% of Micron’sDRAM (including some HBM) & 1/3 of NAND volume in this period. The largest SCAsgenerally have a ceiling price at CQ2 market price, & a floor price that implies GM well abovepast peaks. 40% of its revenue will be under SCA with price commitments, & add up to US$100B RPO at minimum price. Micron will receive US$22B in cash deposits & financialcommitment & will gradually return them to customers but more towards the latter half of theSCAs. We wonder if the ceiling suggests limited headroom for ASP. The US$22B fixed cashdeposits may be more “protective” than if they were prepayment for future purchase, though22% of the RPO is hardly a big number. Micron sees shortage to continue beyond CY27.Micron guided CY26 industry bitshipment growth at L-M 20s% for DRAM and ~20s% for NAND, while Micron will grow in linefor DRAM but slightly behind for NAND. Supply tightness is expected to persist beyond CY27.Notably while NAND had a bigger price hike in the May quarter, Micron sees that DRAM willremain far more constrained relative to customer needs than NAND. FY27 net capex can rise above US$45B, up from US$27B in FY26, with over half of theincrease from construction. Guidance on FY27 capex is above consensus too. HBM4 revenue already US$1B.TAM will be easily over US$100B in CY27 & Micron stilltargets HBM bit share the same with overall DRAM share. More capital return.MU didn’t define the target cash level, but will return 100% of excesscash mainly through buyback. Source: Micron EXHIBIT 14:Cloud Memory trailed below others in grossmargin likely due to conventional memory seeing betterASP rise relative to HBM. Source: Bloomberg and Bernstein analysis INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Micron:We rate Micron Outperform with target price ofUS$1,300.00. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Micron Technology Inc We value Micron with 7.7x of forward 5Q-8Q EPS of US$169.8 and arrive at price target of US$1,300. RISKS Micron Technology Inc The biggest downside risk to our target price is an earlier end of favorable pricing environment, which can be a result of weakerdemand or higher supply. Investor sentiment and hence the valuation rewarded by investors is also a risk. China's progress inmemory, especially in NAND, is a downside risk too. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: •Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon. Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelyp