美光科技FY26Q3强劲短期动能但战略客户协议仍难避周期性

edward.hou@bernsteinsg.comYipin Cai, CFA OutperformPrice Target MU still can't avoid cyclicality 16 Strategic Customer Agreements (SCA)thattypically last 5years&cover 20% of Micron'sDRAM (including some HBM)&1/3 of NAND volume in this period. The largest SCAsgenerally have a ceiling price at CQ2 market price,&a floor price that implies GMwell abovepast peaks.40% of its revenuewillbe under SCAwith price commitments,&addupto US$100B RPO at minimum price.Micron will receive US$22B in cash deposits & financialcommitment&will graduallyreturn them to customers butmoretowards thelatter half oftheSCAs. We wonder if the ceiling suggests limited headroom for ASP.The US$22B fixed cashdeposits may be more“protective"than if they were prepaymentfor future purchase, though22% of the RPO is hardly a big number. shipment growth at L-M 20Os% for DRAM and ~20s% for NAND, while Micron will grow in linefor DRAM but slightly behindfor NAND. Supply tightness is expected to persist beyond CY27.Notably while NAND had a bigger price hike in the May quarter, Micron sees that DRAM willremain farmore constrained relativeto customerneeds thanNAND. FY27netcapexcan riseaboveUS$45B,upfromUS$27BinFY26,withoverhalfoftheincreasefrom construction.Guidance on FY27capexis above consensustoo. HBM4 revenuealreadyUSS1B.TAMwill be easilyoverUS$100B inCY27&Micron stilltargets HBM bit share the same with overall DRAM share. More capital return. MU didn't define the target cash level, but will return 100% of excesscash mainly through buyback. Business Model Transformation andStrategic Customer Agreements (1 of 3) strategicimportancehavecausedcustomerstorecognizethattheirproductroadmapsterm memory supply. agreements,orSCAs,withveryrobustterms. thedatacenter,consumerandautomarketsegments.TheseSCAsacceleratethetransformationofourbusinessmodel,enhancepartnershipintechnologyandinnovation,andprovidecustomerswithcontractedsupplyassurance. .Typically,theseagreementshaveafive-yearterm,fromcalendar2026throughtheendofcalendar2030.Automotiveagreementsgenerallyhaveathree-yearterm. .The16signedagreementsrepresentroughly20%ofourDRAMvolumeandathirdofourNANDvolumeoverthisperiod. . These SCAs include four very large customers and three medium-sized customers. .Theremainingagreementsrelatetosmallercustomersfromtheautomotiveindustryandrepresentourcommitmenttothisimportantsector. June 24,2026 Business Model Transformation andStrategic Customer Agreements (2 of 3) undertheseSCAswithcustomersacrossendmarkets.OurcustomersvalueourU.Ssupplyplans,andthis isreflectedinour SCAs. . These SCAs are structured as take-or-pay agreements, with binding commitments topurchasespecificvolumesoverthismulti-yearterm. currentCQ2(calendarQ2)marketprice,andafloorpricethroughthetermoftheagreement. Several SCAs,whichaccountforamodestportionoftheSCA-relatedrevenue,includesubjecttomarketconditions.Whenall plannedSCAsareexecuted,agreementswitheitherfixedpricesorpriceceilingsatorclosetocurrentCQ2marketpricesareexpectedtobeapproximately40%ofourrevenue. .For SCAswhichdocontainsuchpricebands,pricing isdesignedtostaywithinthisfloortoceilinglevelthroughthecourseoftheterm.ThispricingvisibilitywillhelpourSCAcustomersacrossmarketsegmentstobettermanagetheirbusinessandgrowtheirdemand. June 24, 2026 Source: Micron Business Model Transformation andStrategic Customer Agreements (3 of 3) Micron,wellaboveourpeakquarterlymarginsinanypastcycle. perourcontractsofapproximately$100billionovertheremainingagreementterm expectations,withhighervisibilityandimprovedstabilityinourbusinessperformance financialcommitmentsofs22billion.Thisfurtherdemonstratescustomercommitmenttothisnewbusinessmodel.Markwill provideadditionaldetails. They provide committed DRAM, including HBM as appropriate, and NAND supply to ourcustomersoveramulti-yeartimehorizon. customers.ThisvisibilityenablesourcustomerstoleverageSCAsupplytomakeprogressontheirstrategicplans,drivegrowthandenabletheirendconsumerstowho have worked with us through this period of tight supply with a strong collaborativespirittocreatewin-winoutcomesforthelongtermfortheentireecosystemandendconsumers. June 24,2026 Source: Micron Calendar quarters; 3Q26 is based on company guidance; Micron's quarter ends 1 month earlierSource: Company reports, Bernstein estimates and analysis EXHIBIT 14: Cloud Memory trailed below others in grossmargin likelydueto conventionalmemory seeing better OPM.ASPriserelativetoHBM EXHIBIT19:We target 7.7x1year forward P/E tovalueMicron. References to"Bernstein"orthe"Firm"inthesedisclosures relateto the following entities:Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordSanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK（7才一下·C·八一个株式会社）andanalystsemployedbySocieteGeneraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a