Nebius Inflection: AI专家论坛：仍处于代理工作负载的早期阶段

NebiusGroupNV (NBIS.O)Nebius Inflection: Al Expert Forum - Still in the Early Innings of Agentic Workloads Weattended Nebius'sInflectionevent inSan Franciscoon June9,walking Price (09 Jun2616:00) awayincrementallymoreconstructiveonboththedurabilityofpricingandstrategicvalueof Nebius's expanding softwarestack.The event wasproduct-andcustomer-focusedwithnomajorfinancialorcapacityplanupdates.Ourlearnings reinforced theviewthat Nebius is movingbeyond apurecomputeprovidertowardamorefull-stack Alplatform.Investmentsinmanaged inference,system-leveloptimization,andagent infrastructure(AgentsBlueprintannouncement)suggestNebiusiswell positionedtocapture morevalue as workloads evolvetoward multi-stepagenticprocesses,placinggreateremphasisonorchestration,observability,andcostcontrol. Target priceUS$287.00Expected sharepricereturn30.4%Expected dividend yield0.0%Expectedtotalreturn30.4%Market CapUS$55,888M +1-415-951-1660tyler.radke@citi.com Enterpriseadoptionscaling-Aladoptioncontinuestoscale,withNebiuscustomerHiggsfield Al seeing"staggering"demand (2xgrowth over the last two months)andagentic Alas a realgrowthopportunity,with10%of alltrafficalreadytied toagenticusagesincelaunchingSupercomputer,afullyautonomouscontentcreationagent.OtherpartnersDatabricks,DataRobot,andCognitionnotedthatdespitevalidatedROl in areas like coding,enterprisesare increasinglyfocused onmanaging Al spendthroughmodelroutingand internaltooling,withcostshaving scaledtoapointwhereClOs are now directly involved.The growing focus on spend visibility and value-maxxingtechniques shouldfavorplatformsthatcandeliverbothperformanceandefficiencyatscaleasagenticworkloadsexpand. +1-212-723-4624heath.terry@citi.com Peter Griffith+1-716-730-7831peter.grffith@citi.com Ashley Kim+1-212-816-6689ashley.kim@citi.com Pricing+supply/demand remainfavorable-Managementnoted that demandperGPUisoversubscribedby2-4xandthatcapacitycanbemonetizedmultipletimesacrosstraining,inference,andagenticworkloads,withconsumption-basedmodelscarrying higherrealizedpricing.Managementalsonotedthatasubstantialnumberofconsiderably better positioned for this architecture transition than it was forBlackwell.Thissupports apathtoward morevalue-basedpricingframeworks overtime,asusageshiftsfromrawcomputetowardtokens,workflows,andoutcomes. Yitchuin Wong+1-415-658-4236yitchuin.wong@citi.com Andrew Girard, CFAandrew.girard@citi.com Diversified traction-Thebreadthof logos across Al-native and enterprise cohortswas notable: Higgsfield and Recraft pointed to tangibleperformanceand utilizationgains,whileShopify,Revolut,and Mastercard areusing Nebius for bothlarge-scaletrainingandemergingproductionworkloads.Shopifyalsoflaggedinferenceasapotential expansion opportunity,as most providers offer packaged solutions ratherthanthedirecthardwareaccessneededtooptimize inferenceworkloads. EmergingtechnologiesLeadersfrom LangChain,Pinecone,Tavily,andGuardrailsAl highlighted that the broad problem surface area of agent development requirespre-production simulation ofuser queries to anticipate failure modes,a strategyproven in Physical Aland adopted byfrontierlabs.Improving hardware utilization, SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations totheongoingsupplyconstraints. Valuation We derive our one-year NBIS target price of $287 by projecting revenue growth and profitabilitythroughFY29.The framework thatinformsourvaluationisbasedonaregressionanalysisoftradingmultiplesandgrowth+profitabilityofcompaniesacrossthe software universe.We adjust,when necessary,to account for qualitative factors such as competitive positioning andsustainabilityof growth.We applya 84%discount on NiBS's regression-implied valuation multiple on financial leverageforbuildoutsinfutureperiods.Ourtargetpriceof$287implies~6.3xFY27EEV/Revenue.Risks thereforebemorevolatilethan established cloud orsoftwarenames,andresultsmaybesensitiveto GPUsupplycycles,contracttiming,andfinancingconditions.WeseethefollowingpositiveandnegativefactorsimpactingNBiSshares: .SustainedAl computedemandandfaster-than-expectedGPUdeployment,leadingtohigherARR/MW conversionasNBIS .Strongeradoption of NBIS's higher-margin services,includingToken Factory (inference),orchestration(SLURM/Kubernetes), agentic workflows/search, and human-in-the-loop Tendem integration, which could accelerate the mix shift beyond rawcompute..Better-than-expected capital efficiency,driven bylargerhyperscaler upfront payments,advantageous ABs/converts financing,ormonetizationofthecompany's~$3.75BClickHousestake. ·LongerusefullifeofGPUanddatacenterassets,aidedbyNBiS'scustomrack/coolingdesignsandashiftfrom5-yearto6-year depreciation, leadingto higherreportedmargins and strongerFCF.GreaterGPU supplyfromNVIDIA,whichcould improveNBIS's Blackwell/Rubinallocationandfillcapacityfaster. Downsideriskstoourpricetargetinclude:.Contract concentration risk,withMSFT and METArepresenting ~40%of FY26ARR guidance; changes in strategy,slower . GPU supply c