Coupang履约护城河背后的真实故事：先规模，自动化仍处于早期阶段

The real story behind Coupang's Fulfillment moat; Scale first,Automation still early Coupang is widely viewed as having built a formidable fulfillment moat in Korea, supportedby one of the largest e-commerce logistics footprints in the country and a reputation for fastshipping. This perception has underpinned expectations that logistics scale and automationwill eventually drive structurally higher margins, similar to those achieved by global peerssuch as Amazon. This report tests whether Coupang’s margin story is backed by operationaland financial reality by separating headline scale from true productivity and automation gains. Min-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Robin Zhu+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Looks like a moat, runs like a warehouse.Coupang’s logistics network is vast, fast, anddeeply embedded in Korean consumer behavior, but beneath the surface it remains a thin-margin system early in its automation journey. While Rocket Delivery, nationwide coverage,and scale create the appearance of a formidable moat, filings and architectural evidencesuggest something more conventional. Most facilities are manual or semi-automated,closer to upgraded cross-docks and distribution centers than robot-first fulfillment hubs.Automation is layered onto discrete processes rather than embedded into the core design,limiting structural efficiency gains. Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Charles Gou+852 2123 2618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com Rising labor costs keep winning over Automation.Coupang Korea’s labor costs arerising faster than revenue, pushing labor costs up as a share of sales, while the logisticsunits of Coupang still earn only low single-digit net margins. Returns remain thin relative tothe capital committed to equipment, fixtures, and leased logistics assets. Automation so farhas not delivered strong operating leverage; it has mainly offset wage inflation and volumegrowth, preventing margin erosion rather than driving a step-change in profitability. Withlower minimum wages and rigid labor rules versus the US, Korea offers less wage delta,making Amazon-like margin expansion from automation structurally harder to achieve. Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Physical design tells the same story.Facility layouts on the ground tell a consistentstory. Hub centers across operators look broadly similar, and Coupang’s urban logisticssites prioritize flexible staging and manual handling over deep mechanization. In freshand temperature-controlled categories, competitors such asE-mart (139480 KS; Notcovered)appear to operate more storage-dense, automation-heavy centers, challengingthe view that Coupang is unequivocally Korea’s most automated player. Importantly,Coupang itself acknowledges that highly advanced automation still represents only a low-teens percentage of the overall network. Early-innings automation, not a finished system.Automation spending reflectsthe front end of a multi-year build, with higher construction-in-progress, fixtures, anddepreciation, but only modest productivity gains so far. Current initiatives focus onautomating specific bottlenecks, with targeted investments such asContoro Roboticsfitting this pattern, rather than delivering fully robotic warehouses. Because warehouseautomation rolls out in layers - from “AGVs (for goods transfer)” and “machine vision (forclassification and sorting)” to “industrial robots (for palletizing and unpalletizing)” andeventually “humanoid robots (in the 3 to 5 years, for material handling, loading/unloading,pick and place, delivery)” - efficiency gains are likely to come slowly and incrementally, withmeaningful timing and impact extending well beyond the near term. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We haveUnderperformrating onCoupangandOutperformrating onNaver.While Coupang is widely viewed as having builta strong fulfillment moat in Korea, our analysis of its financials and network design suggests automation remains early-stageand unlikely to drive meaningful operating leverage in the medium term. We maintain our Underperform rating on Coupang,as long-term e-commerce margins are ultimately dictated by competitive intensity, and potential fulfillment collaboration with the 3rdparty logistics players in Korea, includingCJ Logistics (000120 KS; not covered)to expand fast-shipping coveragerepresents a material obstacle to Coupang shifting its GMV mix toward more margin-accretive growth, Coupang FLC. NaverCommerce GMV growth has outpaced Coupang since Q4 2025, and with KRW 8tn of cash on hand, Naver has ample firepowerto continue investing in commerce, reinforcing its strategic position and preserving rerating optionality, in our view. We have anOutperformrating onInovanceandFanuc, and aMarket-Performrating onEstun. We have anOutperformrating onShuanghuan, and anUnderperformrating onLeader Drive. VALUATION C