联合国贸易发展委员会全球贸易更新（2026年6月）：关键矿产贸易的动态变化（英）

Policy Insights The Shifting Dynamics ofCritical Minerals Trade Asdemand surges, governments turn to tradepolicy to secure critical mineral supplies H I G H L I G H T S 1Demand for critical energy transition minerals(CETMs) is rising rapidlydue to the expansionof clean energy technologies, electrification, and 2Supply of CETMs is concentrated in a fewcountries in key segments of the value chain,especially in processing and refining. 3Trade policy is increasingly being used to secureaccess to and participate in CETM supply chains,driven by concerns over supply security, industrialcompetitiveness, and resilience. 4New international frameworks are emerging,with trade policy instruments playing a central rolein the reconfiguration of CETM supply chains. 5Stronger international cooperation and greaterpolicy coherenceare essentialto ensure that tradesupports both the development needs of critical- Clean energy transition fuelsunprecedented demand for Critical energy transition minerals (CETMs)1, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rareearth elements, have become indispensable to the global transition toward low-carbon energysystems underpinning renewable energy technologies, battery storage and electric mobility.Other growth sectors reinforce and amplify this trend: digitalization, including data centres, The International Energy Agency projects strong growth in CETM demand from 2024 to 2040,with lithium and graphite set to see the strongest growth (Figure 1). Figure 1 Critical mineral demand is set to surge by 2040Projected growth in demand, 2024–2040Figure 1Critical mineral demand is set to surge by 2040Projected growth in demand, 2024–2040 Source:UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) calculations based on data from the International Energy Agency(IEA), Critical Minerals Outlook 2025.Note:Basedon the IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).Source:UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) calculations based on data from the International EnergyAgency (IEA), Critical Minerals Outlook 2025.Note:Based on the IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). However, demand growth varies significantly across sectors. Clean technologies are expectedto take a much larger share of total demand. Between 2024 and 2040, the clean technologiesshare of nickel demand is projected to increase from 17 per cent to 42 per cent, and of magnet Figure 2Clean technologies are claiming a growing share of critical mineral demandClean technologies are claiming a growing share of criticalmineral demand Source:UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) calculations based on data from the International Energy Agency(IEA), Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. Supply chains for critical mineralsare highly concentrated While each CETM faces its own individual market conditions, its supply is generally characterizedby high geographical concentration at every stage of the value chain, from reserves through Reserves of many key minerals including lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, and nickel areunevenly distributed, with a few countries accounting for a dominant share (Figure 3). This UnitedStates Geological Survey (USGS), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026.IbidIbidIbid Figure 3Figure 3 Supply of critical minerals is highly concentratedCombined share of the top three countries, reserves and mine outputSupply of critical minerals is highly concentrated Combined share of the top three countries, reserves and mine output Mining is capital-intensive and characterized by long lead times, limiting short-term supplyresponsiveness and leaving concentrated supply chains exposed to geopolitical risks, governance Refining and other downstream stages are even more concentrated, creating critical bottlenecksin CETM supply chains. For instance, China dominates CETM refining, including rare earths, Refining requires substantial long-term capital investment, along with access to advancedtechnologies, specialized infrastructure, significant energy inputs, and economies of scale tobe cost-competitive, creating high barriers to entry for new players. As a result, value additionactivities are highly centralized, shaping trade patterns and raising concerns about supply chain In addition, the main manufacturing sectors that rely on CETMs are concentrated in a few rapidlygrowing, technology- and energy-intensive industries. These include clean energy generationand storage, transportation, power transmission and electrical infrastructure, electronics anddigital technologies (including semiconductors), and defence and aerospace. These sectors High-performancepermanent magnets incorporating rare-earth elements exemplify thisdynamic. They are indispensable inputs in advanced manufacturing, including electric vehicletraction motors, wind turbine generators, and defense actuators and electronics systems.Imports of rare-earth permanent magnets are highly concentrated in industrialized economies. Figure 4 Advanced economies dominate permanent-magnet importsFigure 4Adva