联合国贸易发展委员会-《全球投资趋势监测》，第49期

Downturn in global investmentpersists in early 2025 INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTANNOUNCEMENTS 15% LOWER; DEAL PACEACCELERATING IN THE 3RDQUARTER H I G H L I G H T S Global FDI remains weak.Following two consecutive years of decline, preliminary data forthe first half of 2025 indicates a further 3% decrease in global foreign direct investment (FDI)(figure 1). New project announcements also continued their downward trend. Figure 1Investment trends, by region, 2025:H1 (Per cent change vs 2024 half year average) Investorcaution deepens.Tariff escalation and ongoing geopolitical tensions haveheightened investor uncertainty, leading to a widespread wait-and-see attitude across manysectors. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) remained subdued, with deal valuesdeclining by 23% in the first half of 2025; however, early indicators show increased activity inthe third quarter. Trends MonitorGlobal Investment Infrastructure and manufacturing take a hit.The value of international project finance deals– primarily concentrated in infrastructure sectors – fell by 8% (figure 1). Greenfield investmentproject announcements, mostly in industrial sectors, also declined, dropping by 17% in number(figure 2). Supply chain-intensive manufacturing sectors were especially affected. Bright spots in the digital and AI sectors.Despite fewer projects, the total value ofgreenfield announcements rose by 7%. Announced greenfield project values in the first half of2025 were significantly lifted by continued investment growth and major projects in the digitaleconomy and AI-related sectors. SDG investment faces mounting challenges.The global investment climate remainstough for sectors critical to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Following a sharpdecline in 2024, preliminary data from the first four months of 2025 shows a further 10% dropin the number of SDG-related investment projects. Projects in least developed countries (LDCs)are on track to fall by another 5% in 2025, possibly reaching their lowest level since 2015. Outlook: persistent headwinds.Looking ahead, the international investment environmentis expected to remain challenging throughout the remainder of 2025. Geopolitical tensions,regional conflicts, economic fragmentation, evolving industrial policies, and multinational effortsto de-risk supply chains are likely to continue weighing on FDI flows. Nevertheless, easingfinancial conditions, rising M&A activity in the third quarter, and higher overseas spending bysovereign wealth funds could support a modest rebound by year-end. Regional trends Developed economies FDI flows to developed countries (excluding European conduit economies) declined by 7% in the firsthalf of 2025 (figure 1). In the largest EU markets – Germany and France – inflows rose from the lowlevels of 2024, largely due to a few major acquisitions. For example, DSV A/S (Denmark) acquired theentire share capital of Schenker AG (Germany), a provider of long-distance freight trucking services,for $15 billion. The overall decline in Europe was primarily driven by lower inflows into Belgium, Spain,Portugal and Norway. In North America, FDI increased by 5%. Cross-border M&A activity, which typically accounts for a large share of FDI in developed countries,fell by 18% to $173 billion in the first half of 2025 (annex table 1). The decline was more pronouncedin services (- 22%) and manufacturing (-15%) while the primary sector saw an increase of 23%.Among industries, non-metallic mineral products, ICT and finance and insurance saw the biggestdrop in value while M&As rose in transportation and chemicals. Cross-border M&As targeting theUnited States – by far the largest target country – fell by 33% and in the United Kingdom by 59%.There were some notable divestments to domestic companies, including the spin-off of the NorthAmerican business of Holcim (Switzerland) to domestic shareholders for $29 billion and the mergerin the United Kingdom of Three UK, ultimately owned by CK Hutchison Group Telecom Holdings Ltd(CKHGT) (Hong Kong, China) for $12 billion with Vodafone (United Kingdom). The number of greenfield project announcements in developed economies fell by 20% in the first halfof 2025 (annex table 2). Compared to the same period in 2024, developed countries recorded over1,100 fewer projects, with the sharpest declines observed in Germany, Spain, the United States,France, and the United Kingdom. Despite this drop in project numbers, the overall value of greenfieldinvestments rose by 48%, mainly driven by a more than twofold increase in the United States and asixfold increase in France. Trends MonitorGlobal Investment Figure 2Global investment project numbers (Indexed, 2020=100) UNCTAD’s Global Investment Trends Monitor reports international investment trendsbased on quarterly foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics provided by memberStates, as well as data on three types of investment projects: •Cross border mergers and acquisitio