联合国贸易发展委员会贸易和发展报告更新

Table of contents A. Global macroeconomic outlook: Squandering good luck...................1 B.Monetary policy decisions in the developed worldreverberate across the globe................................................................7 C. International markets...........................................................................13 1.International trade: Challenges ahead for merchandise trade aftercontracting in 2023.............................................................................................142.Sovereign debt: Developing countries faced significant net outflowsand costly market access....................................................................................17 D. Regional developments.......................................................................23 1.Africa: Adverse country-specific situations add to challenging external conditions242.America: Lower growth ahead across the region..................................................253.Asia: Robust growth across most developing Asian countries..............................26 REFERENCES...........................................................................................29 List of table and figures Table 1World output growth, 1991–2024........................................................................3Figure 1Consumption set to outpace income again: less investment andmore debt on the horizon....................................................................................4Figure 2World economy to invest shrinking proportion of its income for secondconsecutive year.................................................................................................4Figure 3Workers' share of total income continues to shrink..............................................5Figure 4Real wages are struggling to return to their pre-pandemic trendand to keep pace with labour productivity.........................................................10Figure 5Panama Canal and Red Sea disruptions increased maritime freight rates..........15Figure 6Global trade: Merchandise remains subdued while trade in servicesshows more dynamism.....................................................................................16 Abbreviations ECBEuropean Central BankFedUnited States Federal ReserveGDPgross domestic productIMFInternational Monetary FundLIClow-income country Section A Globalmacroeconomicoutlook: The risks that threatened to substantiallyslow down global economic growth in2023 did not fully materialize. Someeconomies – including large ones, suchas China, India, Indonesia, the RussianFederation, the United States, among is projected to grow about 4 per centwhile total income is only projected toexpand 2.6 per cent. In practice, patternsobserved since the early 2000s indicatethat periods of fast consumption growth While theslowdown inglobal growthin 2023 was In terms of policies, the reliance on debtaccumulation – in private and public sectorsalike – introduces a two-fold tensionbetween seeking financial market stabilityand attaining other macroeconomic goals.First, the pressure to prioritize the stabilityof the financial markets tends to have anegative impact on funding for the public This positive dynamic is now beingsquandered. Policy discussions continueto centre on inflation, conveyingconfidence that anticipated monetary less severethan originally UNCTAD latest projections point to globalgrowth of 2.6 per cent in 2024, slightlyslower than in 2023. This makes 2024 thethird consecutive year in which the global Even more concerning than its projectedpace, is the fact that global growth appearsto be strongly driven by private consumption Table 1World output growth, 1991–2024 (Annual percentage change) Figure 1 Consumption set to outpace income again: less investment and moredebt on the horizon Growth of global private consumption and global value added(Percentage) Figure 2 World economy to invest shrinking proportion of its income for secondconsecutive year Private investment as a share of value added, world economy(Percentage) The shortage ofinvestment atthe global levelis concerning.Challenges,such asclimatechange and In the meantime, challenges such as climatechange and development require a greatercoordinated effort and more financialresources. Carbon emissions continue toincrease, absent a coordinated plan for and developing countries (figure 3). Equallyconcerning, years of underinvestmentare depriving the world of the resourcesrequired to enable sustainable development. Figure 3 Workers' share of total income continues to shrink Compensation of employees as a share of total value added, groups of countries(Percentage) In this context, a keenly anticipatedreduction in interest rates in 2024 cancertainly help by easing the pressure onprivate and public budgets across the (not speculative flows), and the demand-side policies that ensure full employment Anyexpectationsthat monetarypolicy alonec