向上看不确定性：将标普500目标价上调至7800，2026财年每股收益上调至337美元

Upgrading Into Uncertainty: RaiseS&P 500 PT to 7800, FY26 EPS to$337 U.S. Equity StrategyVenu Krishna, CFA+1 212 526 7328venu.krishna@barclays.comBCI, US Equities remain choppy as peace talks stop and start, andquestions linger around AI spend, funding and monetization,higher for longer rates, and consumer strength. We focus onthe improving earnings outlook, taking our FY26 EPS to $337from $321, and our 2026 PT to 7800 from 7650. Rex Feng+ 1 212 526 6114rex.feng@barclays.comBCI, US Riddhiman Dass+1 212 526 0850riddhiman.dass@barclays.comBCI, US •Macro regime remains complex, but the balance of risks still leans constructive.Labordata are strong enough to reduce recession risk, but also to push rate cuts further out. Inputcosts are rising again, though not yet a growth shock large enough to derail the cycle. Theequity bull case remains intact, but earnings and AI capex visibility must do more of the workas Fed support fades and positioning is less able to absorb disappointment. Tianqi Feng+1 212 526 9179tianqi.feng@barclays.comBCI, US •We raise our FY26 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $337 from $321,modestly below the Street's$341 and implying ~21% Y/Y growth from $279 in FY25. Tech earnings guidance and visibilityremains underpinned by expanding AI capex, reflationary pressure should support nominalrevenue growth, and the industrial side of the economy looks relatively supportive into 2027,offsettingpotential downside to consumer spending. We also introduce our FY27 EPSestimate at $389 (+15% Y/Y), below the Street's $398. •Our 2026 S&P 500 price target goes to 7800 from 7650.We trim our valuation assumptionsmodestly from the last update (23x FY26 EPS, down from ~24x) to account for uncertaintiesaround the scale, funding and monetization timeline of capex, AI-led dispersion, and highernominal yields and inflation. This leaves earnings to do the work in raising our price target.We also introduce our 2027 price target at 8800. •We go to Neutral on Financials and Healthcare.Our bull thesis on the Financials sector hasnot played out, as banks-driven positive earnings revisions wereoffsetby private creditconcerns, regulatory risks within payments, and AI disruption. We believe downward EPSrevisions for Healthcare have mostly run their course, leaving risk/reward more balanced.Thebalance of our sector views remain unchanged: Positive on TMT, Industrials and Utilities,Negative on the Consumer space. •Risks we are watching into the back half of the year includesigns of stress in the AIinvestment cycle, including the 'what-ifs' we debated last September: model advancement,availability of power, and funding (especially as the financing mix grows more complex). Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 12.Completed: 22-Jun-26, 17:30 GMTReleased: 23-Jun-26, 04:10 GMTRestricted - External Rates are re-centering as a key risk factor with a new Fed Chair taking the reins amidresurgent inflation. Finally, we are keeping a close eye on the U.S. consumer as higherinflation and lower purchasing power have the potential to generate lagged pressures in2H26. 2026: the (equity) story so far U.S. equities entered 2026 with plenty of good news already priced in:Global macro washolding together, AI capex was an undeniable tailwind, and market leadership was beginning tobroaden beyond mega-cap Tech into cyclicals, small caps and “old economy” beneficiaries ofthe AI buildout. Buthigh valuationslefta narrower margin for error.By February, themonths-long debate over AI disruption insoftwarehad boiled over, leading the industry to giveback all of its outperformance vs. SPX since 2022. Concerns over debt-ladensoftwarecompanies spilled over into already-simmering worries about private credit, which then bledinto a broader reassessment of long-duration growth at the same time geopolitical risk wasmoving to the center of the macro debate. The war in the Middle East then sparked agenerational oil shock, stoking renewed fears over inflation, central-bank reaction functionsand global growth. Equity markets had to price not just AI disruption, but also the possibilitythat thesoft-landingnarrative wasdriftingtoward something closer to stagflation-lite. We believed there was value in looking through the noise and focusing on both the underlyingstrength of the U.S. economy and the improving fundamentals within U.S. equities. Indeed,once ceasefire headlines shrunk both thelefttail and the immediate geopolitical risk premium,investors quickly returned to the parts of the market where earnings visibility lookedstrongest.Big Tech, Growth and Momentum surged as