DSV：雄心壮志与投资者质疑并存，协同效应驱动利润率提升即将落地

Alex Irving, CFA+44 20 7676 7044alex.irving@bernsteinsg.comAntoine Madre+33 1 58 98 74 52antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com European TransportDSV A/S RatingOutperformPrice TargetDSV.DC 2,100.00 DKK DSV: Towering ambition vs investor skepticism, with synergy-ledmargin gains about to kick in DSV has spent the last year and a half setting the stage for its next period of organic growth: anacquisition, the initial integration, and finally last month’s Capital Markets Day. The company isbrimming with ambition; 2030 margin targets are above previous long-term goals, and wouldchange what “possible” looks like in forwarding. Investors do not credit it, after two missed Close Date22 Jun 2026DSV.DC Close Price (DKK)1,539.50Price Target (DKK)2,100.00Upside/(Downside)36%52-Week Range1,913.50/1,233.00EDME1,576.26FYEDecDiv Yield0.5%Market Cap (DKK) (M)370,405EV (DKK) (M)454,924 Brimming with ambition.DSV completed its acquisition of DB Schenker in Q2 2025,broadly doubling the size of the business and rendering the company to become the world’slargest freight forwarder. A Capital Markets Day in Q2 2026 saw the group target >55%conversion margin in Air & Sea, and >35% in Road and Contract Logistics, by the end of the Investors do not credit it.DSV’s halo has slipped. The reliable execution machine hasbeen sputtering. Contribution margins in Air & Sea fell sequentially in Q2 and Q3 2025: tobe expected, as the Schenker acquisition closed during Q2. Less expected: margins fellsequentially again in Q4’25 and Q1’26. Shares have de-rated to ~14x 2028e earnings, vs a We see the plan as credible.DSV has several levers to pull to drive gross profits higherand cost out, chiefly around insourcing logistics activity, consolidating legacy systems, andenhancing automation through the business. In our view the company has a credible path to Q2 may be a turning point.DSV is messaging positively into the Q2 print, with EBIT seenaround DKK 6bn and the Air & Sea conversion margin rising above 40%. Demonstrableprogress towards its ambitions may rekindle interest in the stock. Investment ImplicationsWe rate DSV Outperform, TP DKK 2,100. DETAILS •Not just the biggest, but the most profitable large global forwarder among major peers.With the 2025 acquisition ofDB Schenker, DSV became theworld’s largest freight forwarder: broadly in line with Kuehne+Nagel on Air & Sea volume,but more profitable and with larger Road and Contract Logistics businesses.DSV has long been an EPS compounder,rising from DKK 7 before the financial crisis, to DKK 23 pre-Covid, and in our estimates DKK100+ by 2028. That growth hasbeenboth organic(rising global trade, underlying margin expansion)and inorganic: acquisitions having historically ledto inflections in EPS growthas it took over huge volumes and drove margins up to its own, industry-leading levels. Profit •Synergies: En route. Slower, but more transformational, than in previous deals.DSV has added significant value overthe last 20 years through transformative acquisitions and inorganic expansion. Every deal has seen DSV not only stepup in scale, but also realize significant synergy benefits.Each time, the target has been a lower-margin business, withtypically 18 months to take margins up to DSV’s own industry leading levels.The last deal, for DB Schenker, is only seeingmargin improvements really start to come through a year post-acquisition, which we ascribe to greater complexity •Air & Sea: Still the core profit engine.DSV derives60% of its operating profit from Air & Sea, and investorsunderstandably continue to focus far more on this business than on the other segments. Thesize and growth of the airand sea forwarding industry is mainly a function of global trade, which in turn has historically closely tracked thedevelopment of real GDP. We expect that to remain the case, and forDSV to outgrow the market as it takes share fromsmaller, fragmented freight forwardersthat lack either the logistics expertise or the technological infrastructure of thescale players. We alsoexpect some upside to unit gross profits at DSV as it insources logistics value added activity •Contract Logistics: How far can labor productivity drive margins?DSV’s Contract Logistics business isalready moreprofitable than its closest peers, with a c. 9% EBIT margin last year, vs typically a 6-7% range at DHL Supply Chain and3-4% at GXO.Margins have risen over time, from 4% in 2016, built in part on ongoing improvements in labor productivity. We see these gains as ongoing,coming on top of at least mid single digit revenue growthfrom economic activity,inflation and outsourcing, pushing EBIT above DKK 8bn by 2030 in our view. •Road: The highest transformation potential.DSV began as a Nordic road freight forwarder, but now derives 60%+ ofits operating profit from Air & Sea.The greatest transformation likely takes place in this division, with three mainsources of upsidebeyond bringing DSV’s cost-focused culture to bear. First,DSV’s patchwork