欧洲央行收紧政策的合理性探析

Economist+44-20-754-72237Mark Wall LagardedescribingJune's25bphikeas"robust"butnot"forceful."Toassesstheappropriate trajectory ofpolicy and thepotentialquantumoffurther hikes, we haveapplieda suite of simple policy rulestothe ECB's own staff projections.Thisreportshows that the ECB's ownoutlookforinflationand growthwarrants somefurtherpolicy tightening ahead, even afterthe recent Us-Iran MoUannouncement. Chief Economist+44-20-754-52087 Conclusions andtakeaways: Further policy tightening is warranted: The ECB's June rate hike wasrobust, supported even by the milder scenario. Using the ex-energy HiCPforecasts, the median policy prescription under the baseline scenario isconsistentwithrates risingto roughly2.75%byend-2026(consistent withtwo more hikes). Or under the milder scenario, the median prescriptionsuggests rates topping outat a little lessthan2.50%attheend of thisyear(more orless consistent with one more hike). June's revisions to the baseline projection warrant some furtherpolicytightening: The revision to inflation and activity between the Marchbaselineprojection and the June projection boosttheprescribed pathofpolicyratesby25bpto50bponaverageacrossthevariousrules.BetweenMarchandJune,marketpricingmovedtopriceinanadditional25bppolicyhike this year-broadly consistent with the policy rules. Rules are only a guide not a script: While policy rules provide a guide for"good" monetary policy,they do not capture all the complexities ofinvasion of Ukraine, the rules prescribed highly aggressive policytightening.Duringthe2024ratecuttingcycle,actualratesbroadlyfollowedthe prescribed paths for rates early on, but perhaps pushed actual ratestowards the lower end of the prescribed range by the end of the cuttingcycle. WhatthismeansfortheEcBpolicyoutlook:ThetoneattheECBpressconferenceon 11 Junewas consistent withthe risk of twomorehikes, leading to a terminalpolicy rate of2.75%.Wemaintain ourbaseline call for one morehiketo2.50%.There are already some signs of the inflation shock moderating (e.g., dbDIGinflationexpectations)andoilpricesarelowerthanwhatwewereexpectingaftera Us-lran deal. Current energy futures suggest the path ahead lies somewherebetweentheECB'sbaselineandmilderscenarios.Ifthatisthecase,thepolicyrules Focus Europe Focus Europe Low weight on output gap rule: This inertial-type rule lowers the weight on the output gap and increases it on inflation to focus more on inflation. projections (released atthe June meeting).1 suggest the ECB should do with interest rates over the nearterm? produced the path of interest rates prescribed by each rule over 2026-27 (Figure 2,LHS). The suggested paths of interest rates broadly fall into three main groupings: Taylor-typerulespredicatedonheadlineHicPinflationsuggestmonetarypolicy should be tightened aggressively and quickly in response to theinflationarypressuresfromtheenergyprice shock.Therules suggestratesshould be hiked to around 4% by the end of this year, a significant increasefrom currentlevels. First-difference rules prescribe a steady tightening of policy. While lessaggressive than the Taylor-type rules the fact that inflation is well abovetarget in 2026, and further on unemployment is steadily falling (driven bythe economic recovery) the rule interpret the data as signals we are stillbelow equilibrium throughout this period.Policyrules that incorporatesmoothingofpolicyrates orbased oncoreinflation suggest policy paths that are more in line with what markets andeconomists (the SMA)arepredicting.The smoothingparameterhelps therule look through the near-term inflationary spike that is assumed in theforecasts to betemporary andtake a moremedium-term view. TheEcB canprobablyignorethesignal frompolicyrulesbased onheadlineeffectsandwill insteadfocus onthespilloversorsecond-round effectsfromenergyprices.Forthis reason,wealsorun the rules on HicPexcludingenergyasthe inflation measure within the rules. These results are presented on the right-handsideofFigure2 Focus Europe Excludingenergypricesfromtheinflationmeasureproducespolicyprescriptionsthat lie much closer to current market pricing. The rules suggest that furthertightening of policy is warranted under the ECB's baseline projects whichincorporate a broadening of inflation throughout the economy.The median ruleimpliesrates at roughly2.75%byend-2026 (consistentwithtwomorehikes). Caveat for interpreting the policy prescriptions:Thepath of inflation and GDPused in the policy rules are drawn from the staff's baseline projections which areconditionedonmarketpricing(three interestratehikes).Thereisno endogenousfeedbackfromthepathofprescribedpolicyfromeachpolicyrulebacktoinflationand output. In reality, if the ECB didfollow the Taylor-type rules prescription at thelastmeetingandhiketoaround3.75%ratherthan2.25%,thefuturepathofinflationand GDP growth would be different from what is assumed in the baselineprojections. This in turn would affect the values of the prescribed policy from therulefurtherout