阻力减小，宽松程度降低：美中贸易战缓和对欧元区增长有轻微的积极影响，削弱了迅速转向宽松政策立场的理由。我们预计欧洲央行将在6月降息25个基点，7月暂停，9月和12月再次降息，最终存款利率为1.5%。

Restricted - External European EconomicsSilvia Ardagna+ 44 (0) 20 7773 1715silvia.ardagna@barclays.comBarclays, UKMariano Cena+44 (0) 20 7773 0727mariano.cena@barclays.comBarclays, UKMark Cus Babic+1 212 526 1870mark.cusbabic@barclays.comBCI, USBalduin Bippus+44 (0) 20 7773 4277balduin.bippus@barclays.comBarclays, UKSaadalla Nadra-Yazji+ 33 (0) 1 44583624saadalla.nadrayazji@barclays.comBBI, Paris 202420252026Calendar year averageQ2Q3Q4Q1EQ2EQ3EQ4EQ1EQ2EQ3EQ4E20242025E2026E0.30.20.40.20.3-0.1-0.30.00.20.40.50.5.........1.30.71.71.01.3-0.2-1.0-0.11.01.51.92.0.........0.50.51.01.21.20.90.30.0-0.10.31.11.60.80.60.70.50.00.60.40.30.20.10.20.20.40.50.51.01.21.10.31.10.90.50.30.20.20.10.20.30.30.42.71.71.0-2.51.80.7-0.5-0.4-0.20.20.40.50.60.6-1.90.01.30.20.4-0.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.30.10.0-0.30.90.50.10.10.10.20.30.40.40.50.71.01.10.60.2-0.90.00.2-0.1-0.3-0.20.00.00.10.00.4-0.5-0.30.30.10.20.10.30.0-0.1-0.10.00.10.20.21.00.50.16.56.46.36.26.26.46.66.86.96.86.86.66.46.56.82.62.52.22.22.32.01.91.91.51.81.91.82.42.01.83.12.82.82.72.62.32.12.02.02.02.02.02.82.32.0……………………………3.72.82.62.93.52.42.22.62.62.32.12.12.12.12.22.72.42.1……………………………-3.1-3.4-3.5-1.2-1.4-1.3……………………………87.489.491.44.504.253.653.152.652.151.901.651.651.651.651.653.151.651.654.003.753.503.002.502.001.751.501.501.501.501.503.001.501.50Note: All numbers expressed in % q/q swda unless otherwise specified. E = Forecast.•Also, European leaders have identified a list of US goods (worth c.€100bn) on which the EUcan imposetariffsif negotiations do not come to fruition. Although the extent of retaliation islikely to remain small, it would still be negative for sentiment and the growth outlook.•On inflation, even though the majority of the acceleration in core inflation in April was due tothe timing of Easter in 2025 and, hence it will unwind in May, the EA April flash print and thefinal release in selected countries indicate that core inflation is decelerating less quickly thanwe anticipated, particularly in small European countries.•A marginally improved growth outlook and a slightly slower convergence of core inflation totarget will result in a more gradual and reduced pace of monetary easing. We have revised ourECB call, reverting back to our baseline before the "Liberation Day" and subsequentescalation announcements. We continue to expect the ECB to cut policy rates by 25bp inJune, but pause in July, with subsequent cuts at the September and December forecastmeetings, for a terminal depo rate of 1.5%.Snapshots2 -1.9-0.2-0.1 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Mark Cus Babic, Silvia Ardagna, Mariano Cena, Balduin Bippus and Saadalla Nadra-Yazji, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this researchreport accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of ourcompensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Department), theprofitability and revenues of the Markets business and the po