耐克：再见，朋友——首席财务官过渡及第四季度指引确认

Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com U.S. Apparel & Specialty RetailNike Inc Jessica Tian+1 917 344 8413jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperformPrice TargetNKE Jed Hodulik+1 917 344 8594jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com 80.00 USD Nike: Goodbye, Friend - CFO transition, Q4 guide confirmed Nike announced after-market today (link) that Dave Denton will join the company as EVP and CFO effective Aug 17, with current CFOMatt Friend stepping down at that time and remaining through Sept 4 to support the transition. Friend will transition to an advisor roleto CEO Elliott Hill during this period and remain a full-time non-executive employee through his departure. Friend will also participate in Denton’s appointment comes ahead of a critical juncture for Nike,with Win Now actions expected to be finished by the end ofthe calendar year and the company shifts back to growth mode into calendar year 2027. He will lead the global finance organization, Denton joins from Pfizer, where he has served as CFO since May 2022. He brings 30+ years of experience across large-scale publiccompanies, including prior CFO roles at Lowe’s (2018-22) and CVS Health, where he spent ~20 years helping guide its evolution into adiversified healthcare platform. He also has public company board experience, with prior roles at Tapestry and Haleon, and is expected From the 8-K, Denton’s compensation package includes a $1.45m base salary, 120% target bonus, and $11.5m in target annual long-term incentives (50% PSUs / 25% options / 25% RSUs), alongside one-time cash awards totaling ~$11.25m ($7.25m sign-on and a$4.0m performance-based award). The performance award cliff vests in Dec ’27 and pays out at 100% to 200% based on adjustedoperating margin expansion in FY27, aligning incentives with the company’s margin recovery targets. In the press release, CEO Elliott Hill noted “Dave is a proven public-company CFO who knows how to help great consumer brandsoperate with discipline and invest to win…Dave’s experience, judgment, and operating rigor will help us execute against these prioritieswith consistency and build on the progress underway.” Denton added “Nike is one of the world’s great brands… I’m excited to partnerwith Elliott and the leadership team to support the company’s priorities, invest with discipline, and help deliver sustainable long-termvalue.” Hill also thanked outgoing CFO Matt Friend for his contributions, noting this transition as a “natural moment” as the company shiftstoward growth, and highlighting Friend’s role in ensuring a seamless handoff. The 8-K filing also notes that Friend’s departure was not Q4 results expected to be “generally in line” with guide,excluding a one-time benefit from tariff refunds, which was notcontemplated in the company’s prior guidance. Revenue was guided to -2% to -4% (including a 2 pt FX tailwind), with modest growthin N.Am, despite value liquidation in the prior year, offset by continued declines in China (-20%) and Converse. GM was expected to EXPECTED CHANGE TO CONSENSUS EARNINGS DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respective VALUATION METHODOLOGY Nike Inc We set a $80 price target using a P/E multiple of 27x our forward FY2028 EPS estimate of $2.91 RISKS Nike Inc Downside risks: • Slower growth in Sportswear overall • Slower recovery of Nike in China, and continuing loss of market share• Pressure on margins as a result of inflation, freight, channel costs, or other opex headwinds • Share loss to competitors in key markets including North America • Risk of interruption from concentrated supplier baseRATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging mar