中国啤酒2026年5月更新：喜力正迅速加速，百威仍滞缓

China Beer May update: Heineken rapidly accelerating while Budstill languishes China beer total sell-out value was +2% in May 2026, reflecting a small step up from April’s1% growth. Restaurant channel value growth continued in line with April at +3%, while off-trade value growth improved to +1% from -1% in April. Yanjing (not covered) was again thestrongest performer in May with value +17% YoY (slowing down somewhat from April’s Euan McLeish+81 3 5962 9611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com Hao Wang, CFA+852 2123 2627hao.wang@bernsteinsg.com Our regressions now indicate that CRBeer’s topline growth will accelerate to c. 2% in Q2,Bud China’s decline will narrow to c. -2%, and Tsingtao’s will widen to c. -3% based on theQ2 to date monthly sales. We have observed a 96% correlation between Bud’s reportedgrowth over the last 15 months, compared to 84% for Yanjing, 81% for Tsingtao and Mufei Gao+81 3 6777 6995mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com Total off-trade beer sales improved MoM in all five key provinces, led by Zhejiang andJiangsu which improved to +11%/+5%, from -7%/-11%, and Guangdong’s off-tradegrowth continued to accelerate to +14% YoY vs +10% in April. All segments, other thanMS+, bounced back to growth in the off-trade. In the restaurant channel, Guangdong againoutperformed at +20% but we still haven’t seen this filter through to Bud China. Shandong CRBeer’s April value growth came in at +3% in May, ahead of April’s +2% but belowQ1’s +4% average yoy. CRBeer outperformed the Premium segment (+11% vs overallsegment +5%) in May, driven by Heineken at +37%, with 11% value growth in bothchannels and both accelerating vs April. Overall, CRB grew value in both channels in Mayand the most pronounced growth was recorded in Guangdong and Fujian provinces where Bud China’s value was -3% again in May, similar to April and up from -8% in Q1 and-11% in Q4. Both channels showed modest trajectory improvement, but the lack of materialuptick in the off-trade (-10% in May vs -12% in March & April) suggests that Bud’s routeto market expansion strategy is yet to deliver the goods. Bud improved in both channels inZhejiang and also in Premium (Exhibit 19), but performance in the Guangdong restaurant Tsingtao’s May value was -2% YoY, in line with Q1’s -2% but marginally below March’s0% and April’s -1%. Its home province Shandong (36% of Tsingtao’s national sell-out value)was the biggest drag in the month with provincial value in restaurant channel performing Chongqing(not covered) overall value was +9% YoY in May, in line with +9% in the1st Quarter but slowing down from April’s +12%, as the restaurant channel deliveredsignificant sequential improvement in key provinces apart from Guangdong, but off-tradechannel deteriorated in the month. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rateCRBeer Outperformwith a Price Target of HK$46. Model: 291.HK We rateTsingtao H-Share Outperformwith a Price Target of HK$71 andTsingtao's A-share Market-Performwith a PriceTarget of RMB62. Model: 168.HK We rateBud APAC Market-Performwith a Price Target of HK$7.60. Model: 1876.HK DETAILS EXHIBIT 1:Our regressions now indicate that CRBeer’s topline growth will accelerate to c. 2% in Q2, Bud China’sdecline will narrow to c. -2%, and Tsingtao’s to widen to c. -3% based on our regression formulae and the Q2 todate monthly sales. MONTHLY OVERVIEW OurBigOne LabChina beer data set leverages the POS sell-out data to track 180k supermarket stores and menu QR code datafor 230k restaurant outlets nationally, allowing us to track brewer sell-out value performance by province and price segment on In May 2026 we saw 3-month rolling overall national beer value growth (i.e Off-Trade + Restaurant channel) +2% in the periodending May 31 (Exhibit 3). Comparing May vs April and March, May standalone value was +1% YoY, slightly better than March’s-1% and April’s +1%. Monthly value growth performance improved for CRBeer, Bud was at similar rate vs April, and all otherssaw deterioration in the month. By brewer, Yanjing (not covered) was again the strongest performer in May with value +17% YoY Going into June, comps are similar versus May (Exhibit 14), before they become much tougher in July for most brewers apartfrom Bud China and Yanjing. EXHIBIT 5:Off-trade value was in marginal growth at +1%YoY in the month EXHIBIT 8:Yanjing materially outperformed in most segments in the month EXHIBIT 11:At the national level Bud China’s share loss was across the board in May while CRB gained the most inSuper Premium and M/S&Econ EXHIBIT 12:In the Off-Trade, Bud China was maintainingits share in MS+ EXHIBIT 13:And they even gained share in Premiumsegment of Restaurant channel OFF-TRADE / RESTAURANT CHANNEL MOMENTUM BY BREWER BUD CHINA Guangdong and Zhejiang were the largest contributors to Bud China’s growth in the Restaurant channel (Exhibit 17). Andsimilarly is Premium segment in the same channel (Exhibit 1