中国光伏行业更新：亏损态势延续；下游板块布局优势凸显（2026年5月月度报告）

Persisting in Loss; Downstream BetterPositioned (Monthly - May 2026) Research Analyst+852-2203-5889 FollowingalowbaseinApril,theplannedmoduleoutput isexpectedto recover 10%MoMto35GWinMay,accordingtoSMM.Thatsaid,currentmonthlydemandis still considerably lower than the average monthly demand of 47GW in2025,mainly affectedbyweakerChina demand (down31%YoYin1Q26).DuringApril,polysilicon,wafer,and cellprices have correctedby13-15%,10-13%,and13-17%,consolidation. Although near-term pricing has largely stabilized since MlT'smeeting on April 17th,we are yet to see a sign of price recovery,despite mostpolysilicon producers currently operating at negative cash margins. Downstream isbetterpositioned inthenear-termPolysiliconandsolarglasssectorsareundermorenear-termpressure,inourview, primarily due to high inventory levels. For polysilicon, the aggregate industryinventory,whichincludesholdingsatbothpolysiliconandwaferproducers,stayedhighat558kilotons,representingapproximately44%ofour2026annualdemand.For solar glass,the industry inventory level was 49 days as of late April,a historicalhigh level and also up 14%MoM compared withlate March. On the flip side,webelieve the downstream module sector is relativelybetterpositioned than others in thenearterm, as margins turned positive following largeupstream cost declines. Alternative EnergyChinaSolarSector Whiletheindustrystill faces considerablepressurefrom weak solardemand and uncertaintyregardingthespecificsofanti-involutionmeasures,thestabilizedvaluechainpricing is anear-term positive forthe downstreammodule sector,whichiscurrently one of thefewprofitablesegments.Amongthestocks we cover,LoNGi(601012.SS)is a near-term beneficiary.We have a SELLrating on Tongwei(600438.ss),asweseethe companyas akeyvictimofplungingpolysiliconpricesgivenitshighinventorylevelandamoreleveragedbalancesheetthanpeers. Previous editions of DB China Solar Monthly S-D Monitor: Jan-Feb 2025, March2025,April2025,May2025,June2025,July2025August2025,September2025October2025,November2025,December2025,January2026,February2026March2026,April2026 Polysilicon: Pressure amidst subdued demand andresilient inventory inMay2026,up3%MoM.Ourcalculations suggestan industryaverageutilizationof27%.Weekly inventory:Polysilicon inventory levels at producers decreased slightlyby7%MoM to 302kilotons in earlyMay,likelydue to amodest pick-up in Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kongpolysiliconprocurement activities from wafer companies as polysiliconprices revisit historical lows.At the same time,polysilicon inventory at wafercompanies pickedupfrom216kilotons at end-Marchto251kilotons at end-April.Asa result, thelatest aggregatepolysilicon industry inventory,whichincludesholdingsatbothpolysilicon and waferproducers,was largelyflat MoMat558kilotons,representingapproximately44%ofour2026annualdemand.Weexpectthismaycontinuetoweighonpolysiliconpricing inthenearterm. Polysilicon: ASP revisits historical low par with their previous troughs in June 2025,in line with our expectation.Although near-term pricing has largely stabilized since MllT's meeting on April17th,thereisnosignofpricerecovery,despitemostproducerscurrentlyoperatingatnegativecashmargins,asperourestimates.Polysiliconfuturespricessaw a short-lived rebound after MllT's meeting and have now fallen back to RMB 33/kg, marginally higher than the historical trough (RMB 31/kg). Wafer:Production rebound amidst easinginventory recovery,accordingto SMM.The industry's average capacityutilization is approximately51%,accordingto ourcalculations.Monthlyinventory:Waferinventoryeasedby12%MoMto24GWinlateApril2026 (versus27GWinlateMarch2026),mainlysupportedbyaccelerated Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kongprocurementfromcellproducers,accordingtoSMM. Wafer: Stable cash margin the unit cash marginfor wafers remained largelybreakeven inApril, with net margin remaining negative. Cell: Production may see a slight increase and a relativelyhealthy inventory level.The averageutilization rateforTOPCon cell producers was 53%in April, asper our calculations.Silverpaste costremainedhighandrepresentsover40%ofcellproductioncost.Weekly inventory:Cell inventory was 9.6GWas of lateApril, according to SMM. DeutscheBankAG/HongKong Cell: Pricing stabilized forasmall pricerebound,accordingtoSMM.Thecashmarginforcell producersremainedpositiveafterpricecorrections,thankstolowerupstreamcosts. Module: Output to rebound modestly into May base inApril.The industry'saverage capacity utilization is approximately34%,according to our calculation.Weeklyinventory:Domesticmodule inventorywas29.4GWasoflateApril, largelystableMoM,accordingtodatafromSMM Module: Positive margin in the near term and we seemoduleproducers betterpositioned along thevaluechain in the nearterm.Price correction risk remains,given still subdued overall demand. Solar glass: Inventory pressure intensifies to lateMarch.Based on our calculations,capacities under maintenanceand idlecapacities totaled 48kilotonnes,representing 36%of domestic totalc