能源（中东和北非）：地缘风险折现（系我们对启动MENA能源覆盖的反对意见之三）

Pushbacks from our MENA Energy Coverage Initiation (3/3) - TheGeopolitical Discount We initiated coverage on MENA Energy just over a month ago across seven names —DEWA, ADNOC Gas, Fertiglobe, ADES, Arabian Drilling, SABIC and Empower. Our first seriesmade the structural case: contracted and regulated cash flows as a long-term insulatoragainst macro volatility. Our second series tackled the SABIC question head-on — is thepetrochemical giant a value trap or a trough play? — stress-testing the cycle, the margins,and the Saudi capex dependency. Both series aged well; the thesis held as conditions Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.+212 5 22 86 79 41abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com Guillaume Delaby+33 1 42 13 62 29guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.com James Hooper+44 20 7676 6995james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com There is an old joke in the Gulf’s business entourage: the most reliable buy signal in the MiddleEast is a geopolitical crisis, because the region has been "uninvestable" roughly every threeyears for the past two decades, and yet here we are. In that spirit, we address the geopolitical Specialist Sales Gareth Williams+44 20 7762 5256gareth.b.williams@bernsteinsg.com But how big this is?Middle East has weathered seven major geopolitical crises over thepast two decades — Gulf War II, the 2006 Lebanon War, the Arab Spring, the Yemen conflict,the 2019 Aramco strikes, COVID-19, and the 2023–26 Iran-Israel escalation — and equitymarkets recovered to new highs after each one, typically within two to four quarters of peakuncertainty. History does not guarantee outcomes, but the base rate is unambiguous: regional James Brady+44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com How do we account for the war?We apply Damodaran's country risk premium frameworkacross the coverage universe, embedding a 50-120bps sovereign spread into our WACCassumptions to explicitly price the geopolitical overhang rather than treat it as unquantifiable.Within that framework, we double down on names with heavy domestic exposure — DEWA,ADNOC Gas, Arabian Drilling — where revenues are locally-denominated, legally captive, and Is it enough?The WACC uplift is our baseline, and while the academic literature offers richertools — from Caldara & Iacoviello's GPR Index to ICRG political risk scoring and real optionsframeworks — we deliberately stay simple. Complexity in risk quantification can create a falsesense of precision; a clean, Damodaran-anchored premium that every client can audit andstress-test is more intellectually honest than a multi-factor overlay calibrated to a conflict with What if the SoH disruption persists?The answer is already in the price action:SABIC, Fertiglobe and ADES — all with meaningful international revenue exposure — haveoutperformed the domestic-only names since the onset of hostilities, reflecting the market'sown hedge toward companies whose earnings are less sensitive to UAE/GCC infrastructuredisruption. A persistent SoH closure is a tail risk, not a base case, but investors seeking BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate: •Adnoc Gas - Outperform (PT = AED4.08).•Fertiglobe - Outperform (PT = AED3.88).•Arabian Drilling - Outperform (PT = SAR109.30).•ADES - Outperform (PT = SAR26.17).•DEWA - Outperform (PT = AED3.45). VALUATION COMPS TABLE EXHIBIT 1:MENA Energy - Our Calls.(as of June 3 2026). EXHIBIT 2:MENA energy valuation comp. UAE coverage features a growing and consistent dividend policy whileSaudi coverage leverages attractive valuation. Seek value in Saudi Arabia and yield in the UAE DETAILS MENA Energy Research: •DEWA Model Update - The utility behind the ceasefire trade. Outperform.•Fertiglobe - The global cost floor may be higher than we thought: why the nitrogen bear case no longer holds•Pushbacks from our MENA Energy Coverage Initiation (1/3) – Not all Energy Cyclicals are created equal•ADES 1Q26 model update – The price of tightness: Why ADES deserves a premium in a constrained jack-up market•Empower: Toll bridge priced like cyclical real estate. Initiate at Outperform•MENA Energy: The falcon and the cartel - Why agility drove the UAE out of OPEC•Fertiglobe – No way out: The nitrogen shock with no escape valve. Outperform The long-run Gulf equity index exhibit is the most powerful single visual in the geopolitical discount series — not because it predictsthe future, but because it establishes the base rate with twenty-five years of evidence. Across seven distinct geopolitical shocks— Iraq War, Lebanon War, Arab Spring, Qatar blockade, COVID-19, Gaza War, and the current Iran conflict — all four Gulf indices(Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Oman) recovered to pre-crisis levels and subsequently compounded to new highs, without exception. The The analytical implication for the first page's argument is direct: investors who applied a permanent discount at each prior crisis leftreturns on the table; those who treated the drawdown as an entry point were systematically rewarded. The coverage names mostexposed