PCB/CCL最新动态：Kyber/背板交付延迟可能带来的影响预测

China (PRC) | Technology中国（中华人民共和国） I科技 PCB/CCL Update: Estimated Impact fromPotential Kyber/Backplane DelayPCB/CCL最新动态：Kyber/背板交付延迟可能带来的影响预测 The potential delay of Kyber/backplane PCB for Rubin Ultra may create5%/8% downside on AI PCB/CCL TAM in 2027 vs our original forecasts andmay lead to another 11%/16% downside in 2028 if Kyber is further delayedor canceled. R&D on spec/materials upgrade is ongoing (M9/10/PTFE/CoWoP). -ve for overall PCB supply chain, though we expect upstream tokeep outperforming downstream, driven by ongoing near-term price hike,while +ve for copper cable makers.Rubin Ultra所使用的Kyber/背板印刷电路板若出现延迟交付的情况，则2027年人工智能相关印刷电路板及覆铜板的市场规模可能较原先预期分别下降5%和8%。倘若Kyber项目进一步延迟甚至被取消，那么2028年的市场规模还可能再出现11%和16%的降幅。目前，相关规格指标与材料升级的研发工作仍在进行中（涉及M9/10/聚四氟乙烯以及CoWoP技术）。此举对整个印刷电路板产业链而言属利空消息；不过由于短期内产品价格持续上涨，我们预计产业链上游企业的表现仍将优于下游企业。而对铜缆制造商而言，这一情况则属于利好。 Potentialdelay on Kyber/backplane PCB structure due to intra-rack connectivitychallenges.Our recent channel checks suggest that, due to the sophistication of orthogonalbackplane PCB as a replacement of cable cartridge for intra-rack connectivity, which wasoriginally targeted to be adopted on Rubin Ultra in 2027, Kyber structure will likely to be pushedout to at least 2028. The supply chain began to witness such possibility since May, and inrecent few weeks, the absence of Kyber in 2027 has become a highly likely event, which meansRubin Ultra in 2027 will stick to Oberon structure (i.e., NVL72). The supply chain is strivingfor realizing the Kyber on the new variant of Rubin Ultra in 2028, but the challenges are stilloutstanding even for 2-canister design within a rack (each canister contains 18 trays) as asimplified solution of original 4-canister, meaning low visibility on crystallization. The worst-case scenario here would be the cancellation of the Kyber in the end.由于机架内部连接方面存在技术难题，Kyber/背板PCB结构的开发工作可能会出现延迟。我们最近的调研显示：由于这种垂直式背板PCB结构在技术上相当复杂——它旨在取代传统的电缆连接方式来实现机架内部连接——而这种方案原本计划在2027年应用于Rubin Ultra服务器上。因此，Kyber结构的开发计划极有可能至少要推迟到2028年才能实施。自5月起，供应链各方就已开始意识到这种可能性；近几周来，2027年无法采用Kyber结构的可能性更是变得极大，这意味着2027年推出的Rubin Ultra服务器仍将采用Oberon结构（即NVL72架构）。虽然供应链各方正努力争取在2028年的新版RubinUltra服务器上实现Kyber结构，但即便作为原始4容器设计的简化替代方案——即仅在每个机架上安装两个容器，每个容器中放置18个托盘——相关技术难题依然难以克服，因此实现这一目标的可能性依然很低。最糟糕的情况则是Kyber结构最终会被彻底弃用。 5%/8% downside for AI PCB/CCL TAM in 2027 vs our original forecasts; Another 11%/16%downside in 2028 if no Kyber eventually.Previously, we estimated AI PCB/CCL TAM(including AI server, high-speed switch and high-speed optical transceiver) at US$6-7/2-3bn in2025, and forecast it to reach US$12/5bn in 2026, US$25/12bn in 2027, and US$41/21bn in2028, driven by both spec (higher-layer and more sophisticated design) and materials (fromM8 to M9/10/PTFE) upgrade. If the delay of Kyber/backplane PCB is confirmed, we expect AIPCB/CCL TAM to be reduced by 5%/8% in 2027 compared to our original forecasts. Thoughthe impact seems limited, if it goes beyond 2028 or even gets canceled, we expect a furtherdownside of 11%/16% in 2028. Such change will inevitably bring about less growth upsidefor the entire PCB supply chain in coming years and negative market sentiment. Despite this,we see the R&D on spec/materials upgrade is still going on, e.g., switch board/midplane maymigrate to M9/10/PTFE in 2027, CoWoP is still targeted to penetrate earliest in 2027, etc. Thus,the trend of ongoing dollar content increase on PCB as a core scale-up interconnection solutionin AI infrastructure has not seen structural hamper.与我们最初的预测相比，2027年人工智能领域所用的印刷电路板及覆铜板的市场规模预计将分别下降5%和8%；如果Kyber项目最终未能实施，那么2028年的市场规模还将再下降11%和16%。此前我们预计，2025年人工智能领域所需的印刷电路板及覆铜板的市场规模将分别达到60亿至70亿美元及20亿至30亿美元；预计在2026年这一数字将分别升至120亿美元及50亿美元，2027年则可达250亿美元及120亿美元，2028年更将增至410亿美元及210亿美元。这一增长趋势主要得益于产品规格的不断提升（如层数增加、设计复杂度提高）以及所用材料的持续升级（从M8级别提升至M9/10级别及聚四氟乙烯材料）。不过，如果Kyber项目或背板印刷电路板的开发进度确实出现延迟，那么2027年该领域的市场规模仍将较原先预期分别减少5%与8%。虽然这一影响看似有限，但如果延迟情况延续至2028年甚至项目彻底取消的话，预计2028年的市场规模还将进一步下降11%与16%。这样的变化必然会导致未来几年整个印刷电路板产业链的增长势头减缓，并引发市场情绪的负面变化。不过值得欣慰的是，相关产品规格与材料的研发工作仍在持续进行：例如，2027年交换机主板及中板有可能开始采用M9/10级别及聚四氟乙烯材料；CoWoP技术也预计最早于2027年开始推广应用。因此，作为人工智能基础设施中关键的互联解决方案，印刷电路板的市场需求及价值仍将持续提升，这一发展态势并不会受到根本性阻碍。 .Source: Prismark, Jefferies estimates来源：Prismark，杰富瑞的估算数据 Implication on AI supply chain: -ve for PCB supply chain while upstream may continueto outperform downstream; +ve for copper cable players, thanks to extended lifecycle ofOberon.The potentially lowered TAM may result in certain EPS revision on PCB players,bringing headwinds in stock price performance at any time. But within PCB supply chain,we see ongoing price hike on upstream materials, esp fiberglass cloth and CCL, driven byindustrywide supply tightness, and most of those materials vendors are easier to transferthe rising cost and earn extra profits from each price hike compared to PCB makers at thisstage. Thus, while it is difficult to predict absolute stock price movement, we think it likely forupstream names to keep outperforming downstream PCB names in near term. On the otherhand, the extended adoption of Oberon st