Netflix 重振之路？：重申买入

Netflix June 10,2026 What Gets Netflix Working Again?- Reiterate Buy short-form/UGC. While not a catalyst-rich setup, we see a scenario for NFLX towork again with 1) modest improvement in hours per sub declines in 1H26, 2)potential OM upside later in the year, 3) addtl social media bans, and 4) earlygamestraction.Werecognizetheconcerns,butat low-20xFY27P/Ethestock'smutedsentimentlooksdueforreversion.ReitBuyandPTto$110 (from$128) narrative. While not an all-clear, even modest improvement would be encouraging given 1H26 was weigheddown by competitionfor timefrom the Olympics, supporting thecasefor further improvement.Thisdriven nuances than structural issues. 2) NFLX beat its initial FY OM guide each of the past 5 years (2022 beat ex-FX/Rx), so biasis toward a raise later in the year. With ad rev seasonality and US pricing benefits 2H-weighted,the setup supports upside variance to ests later in the year, which could drive a return to positiverevisions after several qtrs of stagnation. PREV*Rev. (MM) 3) Additional under-16 social media bans a net positive for NFLX. Bans are already in place inIndonesia, Malaysia, and Australia, with Greece setto follow, while the UK and several Europeanmkts (FR, DK, PL) are moving toward tighter rules. While unlikely to move near-term KPls, this couldreduce concerns around Gen-Z short-form habit formation and engagement share erosion. 4) Long-shot optionality with early signs of gaming traction. Sensortower shows NFLX's GameController app recently crossed ~1mweekly downloads froma near-zerobase a fewmths ago.Notthis month as an early signal of gaming traction/a potential new leg. Stepping back, we think declines in NFLX's hours per sub overstate underlying trends, withpassword crackdown, geo mix, and ad-tier shift creating optical pressure on the y/y metric.Importantly,wethink viewinghoursis becoming a less usefulproxyin a more tentpole-driven modelDespite ~2 yrs of hours per sub declines, churn/net adds continue to improve, suggesting it maybe an overly simplistic way to evaluate the business. Reit Buy and PTto $110 on30xFY27EPs (from $128). It's generallytoughfor stocks to work amidsector outflows,missed earnings expectations,and engagementfears bears view as structural.That said,we've not seen enough evidence of fundamental deterioration to doubt NFLX's 2030 algo,and risk/rewards screens well at low-20x FY27 EPS (near lows seen when WBD deal was ongoing)with clear upside if sentiment normalizes. We lower PT multiple but no estimates changes. James Heaney*|Equity Analyst(212)336-1171|jheaney@jefferies.com Jesse Chao*|EquityAssociate+1 (212)778-86311jchao1@jefferies.com Ed Alter*|EquityAssociate(212)778-8702lealter@jefferies.com Brent Thill* Equity Analyst(415) 229-1559|bthill@jefferies.com Jefferies :We believe NFLX will remain the dominant playerin streaming. We see near- term subscribergrowthcomingfromthepassword-sharing crackdown andnew ad-supported tier, with longer-term growth coming from continuedprice hikes andthemultibillion-dollaradbusiness. We also expectcontinueddiscipline on content spend, leading to robust FCF margins of 25%+ overthe long term. Downside Scenario,$75, -9% Base Case,$110, +33% Upside Scenario,$128, +55% international marketsAdvertising becomes ARPU neutral sooner thanexpected (FY26-27): Upside PT based on ~35x our FY27 EPS subscription video on demand: Healthy subscriber growth in through 2030(driven by password crackdown and AvODshift) with pricing driving ARPU: 12% revenue growth CAGR (24-29E):PT based on 30x our FY27EPS share to competitive OTT offerings·LowerARPUgrowthandhigher-than-anticipatedcontentcostsreduceFCFcapabilities, debt paydown, and capital returns.: Competition reduces value proposition andfuture price increases lead to higher churn rates.:Downside PT based on 20x our FY27 EPS SustainabilityMatters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1) Employee engagement, diversity & inclusion are the foundation for the contentthat Netflix is striving to offer and the subscriber base that the company entertains. 2) Product design &lifecycle management related to content production and streaming. :AvOD&passwordcrackdown. New hit original content, driving near-term subgrowth: Potential M&A and further OTT bundles/consolidation:Linear TV engagement trends &the evolution ofsportscontent: Peripheral competitor progress (video games,social media, audio, interactive fitness, etc.) Company Target(s): 1) To achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the end of 2022 and everyyear thereafter. For emissions that it cannot avoid internally, the company willfully neutralize them byinvesting in projects that prevent carbon from entering the atmosphere. 2) To do a better job recruitingHispanic or Latinx, Indigenous,and otherunderrepresented groups; learn more abouttopics of inclusionand representation outside the Us and measure"inclusion health"to understand the entire employeeexperience. Qs to Mgmt: 1) Where do your ESG goals rank