Grenergy Renovables：2025年公司会议后重振——重申增持评级并提高目标价

Restricted - External GREG.MC/GRE SQOVERWEIGHTUnchangedEuropean Clean EnergyNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetEUR 78.00raised 56% from EUR 50.00Price (02-Jun-25)EUR 70.50Potential Upside/Downside+10.6%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (EUR mn)2065Shares Outstanding (mn)29.29Free Float (%)38.9152 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.0462Dividend Yield (%)N/AReturn on Equity TTM (%)14.63Current BVPS (EUR)16.52Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-MC52 Week rangeEUR 71.90-26.80Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingEuropean Clean EnergyTemitope Sulaiman, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 3439temitope.sulaiman@barclays.comBarclays, UKPeter Crampton+44 (0)20 3555 0125peter.crampton2@barclays.comBarclays, UKDominic Nash+44 (0)20 3134 2364dominic.nash@barclays.comBarclays, UK We reiterate our Overweight rating: European renewables stocks face headwinds fromsaturation in the Electricity system and we do not anticipate a return of the investment cycleamong large-cap utilities until ~2029/2030. However, we think small/mid-cap renewables tendto have better economics in solar and can still achieve profitable growth given their i) lowstarting bases, and ii) smaller plant sizes. We prefer Grenergy given its high exposure to solar,strong medium-term growth and attractive diversification with battery storage in Chile. Despitestrong YTD performance, we see further upside potential in Grenergy with near-term catalystssuch as: i) finalisation of capacity payments in Spain, ii) PPAs/tolling agreements signed for theOviedo BESS project and iii) further details on capacity payments in Germany. Grenergy hasallocated €100m within it investment plan towards a share buyback programme over 2025-27.We estimate the stock trades at 11.9x 2026E EV/EBITDA vs our clean energy sector average of9.1x, which we see as justified given Grenergy's superior medium-term growth and diversifiedreturns profile.GREG.MC: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS (EUR)FY Dec20232024202520262027EPS1.72A2.11A3.29E5.46E9.01EPrevious EPS1.72A2.11A4.27E5.26E8.96EConsensus EPS1.67A2.11A3.70E2.56E4.48EP/E41.033.421.512.97.8Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 02-Jun-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 FIGURE 1. Grenergy December 2025 SOTP Valuation% of EV56.4%31.9%16.0%8.4%18.7%7.8%4.8%6.1%3.1%16.3%0.7%0.9%2.9%99.0%1.0%100.0%Valuation Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Temitope Sulaiman, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all ofthe subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related tothe specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding