IPP时代的黄金AI纪元——深度研究

The Golden (AI)geof IPPs–Deep Dive PreviousPowerPlayPresentationsRefinitiv •POWERPLAY #15:Gas-Power & GEV Bull / Bear Debates–December 5, 2025•POWERPLAY #14:Terawatt to Turbine–a Load Growth ‘Theory of Everything’–November 18, 2025•POWERPLAY #13:Advanced Nuclear, a Deep Dive–August 4, 2025•POWERPLAY #12:Modeling PJM-Capacity, Energy, and Reform–June 26, 2025•POWERPLAY #11:Datacenter PPAs-Deal or No Deal?–June 18, 2025•POWERPLAY #10:Budget Bill Solar Coaster-What Now?–May 29, 2025•POWERPLAY #9:Gas Turbine Pricing: How High? And Still Rising?–May 12, 2025•POWERPLAY #8:PV Tracker Market Share, Tariffs, and Risks (NXT, ARRY)–May 5, 2025•POWERPLAY #7:First Solar & AD/CVD-Can 30c Panel Prices Sustain?–April 29, 2025•POWERPLAY #6:Solar & IRA: Worst of Times or Best of Times?–April 3, 2025•POWERPLAY #5:Power Trade: Too Hyper or Still Scaling?–February 24, 2025•POWERPLAY #4:A Deep GE Vernova (GEV) Bull / Bear Analysis–November 26, 2024•POWERPLAY #3:ERCOT Price Modelling & IPP Implications (VST Focus)–Oct 16, 2024•POWERPLAY #2:Problems Under the Sun-IRA Repeal, Trade, Demand, Etc.–July 26, 2024•POWERPLAY #1:Solar & Load Growth-Is FSLR an AI Stock?–June 18, 2024 Table of Contents Section #1:IPP Deep Dive, Top Takeaways–pg. 4 to 9 •Relative rankings of our IPP Outperforms, and who should buy?•Modelling power price = key to our IPP thesis and above Streetests Section #2:IPP Cheat Sheet–VST vs. NRG vs. CEG vs. TLN–pg. 10 to 23 •Compare / contrast the IPPs across realized power price, gen mix, hedging strategy, new build / growthstrategy, estimate upside vs. Street, shareholder return, valuation•Contracting to-date and future ‘contractability’–which IPPs have greatest PPA potential? Section #3:Top Debate / Catalyst by Company–pg. 24 to 28•NRG = Retail Overhang? Or Rate-of-Change toward Wholesale •VST = Best Exposure to Merchant Power Tailwinds (esp. TX)•CEG = Estimate Revisions Coming Soon, but Expensive•TLN = Heavy PJM Skew (esp. Capacity Auction) Section #4:PJM Policy Pandemonium–pg. 29 to 32•Can PJMActuallyDrive New Build? What happens to PJM reserve margin? Section #6:What Power Price & Multiples are Priced-in Today?–pg. 35 to 37•Current Valuations Imply Value Multiple & Power Prices Below Curves •VST & TLN = Lowest Power PriceandValuation Credited by Street Section 1 IPP Deep Dive, Top Takeaways PowerPlay#16:The Golden (AI)geof IPPs–Deep Dive Section 1:IPP Deep Dive, Top TakeawaysIPP Share Price Performance Section 1:IPP Deep Dive, Top TakeawaysRanking Our Outperforms and Who Should Buy VST–Most upside.Best exposed to rising merchant (esp. TX) power prices, balanced PJM & ERCOT. Min. retail. And has half-contractednuclear = goldilocks case. TLN–“Why isn’t it your top pick if most exposed to merchant prices?”= major inbound. The reason is that PJM exposure riskier,espec.cap. auction reform. Still, 2ndhighest upside among our IPP recommendations. NRG–Best value pick.Also for investors who believe in new builds at premium PPAs (i.e. BYOG), not in our model. CEG–Earnings revision story for investors not averse to higher multiples.Watch Mar. 31. We see least upside (LT) given need for nuclearmultiple (now 15-20x within SOTP) to come down, as it implies 75%+ of plants get PPAs. Any analysis or sell side view that does not have a specific take on power price is not making a ‘real’recommendation.As with oil or other commodities, it starts with S&D and price views, even if directional only. Power price modelling is critical to our view on IPPs. •PPAs, buyback potential, M&A, general ‘BYOG’ / BTM risk, PJM reform–all of these are secondary drivers(even distractions) from core IPP fundamentals = power demand vs. supply.•When faced with new build fears (like recent gov’t-supported announcements)–ask, will this close the pendingtightness in PJM and/or ERCOT?•Find a heuristic–we model the Call on Gas, After Curtailment as the key metric connected to power price. Section 1:IPP Deep Dive, Top TakeawaysStreet Merely Embeds Forward Curves = Upside Optionality Our power price view, driven by our PJM & ERCOT models, result in BNPP AEBITDA estimates well aboveConsensus for CEG, TLN, VST and NRG (in this order).This is net of modeling rolling hedging losses, andincludes announced high priced PPAs blended-in. Core reason for our OPratings on all 4 IPPs =significant upside toStreet based on up to~$25/MWh power pricedifferential embedded inBNPP estimates vs.Street. Section 1:IPP Deep Dive, Top TakeawaysDemand > Supply… despite BYOG, BTM, and Perceived Headwinds IPPs dropped >10%on the newest newsof gov’t plans to bringnew supply… …we demonstratehow the devil is in thedetails, such newsupply isneededandstill not enough to getclose to closing thepending S&D gap Section 2 Section 2:IPP Cheat SheetVST vs. NRG vs. CEG vs. TLN:Valuation, Financials, Mix, TP Section 2:IPP Cheat SheetImplied Current Valuation (BNPP vs. Street) Section 2:IPP Cheat SheetRevenue Based on Realized Power Price Section 2:IPP Cheat SheetE