韩国内存出口追踪（2026年5月）：创纪录的月份及HBM4量产启动的早期迹象

Korea Memory Export Tracker (May): A record high month withearly signs on HBM4 ramp HBM revenue in the same quarter,and update thistracker with the Maydata.Details ofourmethodology canbe found in our prior note.Thedatasetcan bedownloadedat this link. +85221232645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com +85221232623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com grew13%MoMon seasonality&more importantlyup15%QoQvs.Feb. ChungcheongProvince (whereSamsungpackagesHBM)grew79%MoM&up55%QoQestimate likely due to Rubin delay but HBM4 ramp will help 2H26 enjoy acceleration. +85221232669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Export for SK hynix also stayed robust.MayexportfromN.Chungcheong &Icheondropped by-9% from the high Apr base & was modestly down by-3% QoQ vs.a relativelyweforecast. Early sign of Samsung HBM4 ramp.As HBM has much higher dollar value per weight,we track "value per weigh" as it may be directionally suggestive of HBM price change. May"valueper weight"grew30% forSamsungbut remained largelyflattishfor SK hynix, likelyreflecting the ramp of Samsung's HBM4 rather than a broad HBM price hike. The trend overthe pastfewmonths has been generally positive for Samsung but flattish or decliningfor SKhynix. Dataconfirmed HBMpricehasbeen insulated fromthevolatilityofconventionalper weight, largely stayed in the same range as before, especially for SK hynix. Export to Malaysia dropped seasonally but remained ata notablelevel.The sizefell MoM to US$o.3B in May, mainly due to drops in the export from SK hynix, thoughdestinations other than Taiwan & Malaysia,and also no sign that Samsung or SK hynix wasproducing HBM at a location that we don't track. Our methodology thus remains robust. Overall MaydatasuggestedhealthyHBMgrowthfor2Q26,withanotablesignofHBM4 ramp at Samsung.Between the two, the data was slightly behind vs.our forecastfor SK hynix ¬ably slowerfor Samsung as ourmodel likelymaynot modeltheHBM4delay properly.We also maintain that Samsung is improving its position in HBM4 & shouldgain more momentum in 2H26. On the other hand, HBM price being resetting now shouldtrigger an upward revision for 2027. Conventional memorypriceincreasetostaystrongin2Q26.We see continuedpricehike to support stocks,esp.for KiOXIA.We remainstructurally constructive on Samsung,SK hynix&Micron but negative on KIOXIA on China competition.Our detailed SOTPvaluationalsofindsKiOXIAover-valued. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS SK hynix : We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 1,150,000. products bears close correlation with HBM revenues of Samsungand SKhynix.We hencetrack themonthly data to providethepreviousnote.Youmayalsodownloadtheexportdataatthislink. Samsung & SK hynix.:May Korea total multichip memory exportto Taiwan and Malaysia was up 13% MoM, & reached a record high of US$4.2B. May data was up 15% QoQ (vs.Feb) and also up 83% YoY (Exhibit 1). As we analyzed before, multichip memory export toTaiwan and Malaysia tracked closely with HBM revenues of Samsung and SK hynix and therefore the May data indicatedcontineudrobustmomentuminto2Q26 packaged, May export jumped to US$1.76B from Apr by 79% MoM due to the low base of Apr. Weakness in Apr shouldbelargely due to the backend-loaded monthly seasonality,as Apr + May delivered solid 43% growth QoQ (vs.Jan+Feb) (Exhibit2). In comparison, our forecast has Samsung HBM revenue rising 2x in 2Q26, which seems too aggressive now consideringRubin's delay (Exhibit 3).According to the regression using historical data, May data suggested US$5.6B in HBM revenuefor Samsung in 2Q26,significantlybelow our estimateby-26%but stillgrowing QoQby 58% (Exhibit 4).Moreover, we alsoApr + May data would suggest US$5.4B in HBM revenue for 2Q26, up 52% QoQ (Exhibit 6). All in all as Samsung guided,HBM4 ramp should accelerate meaningfully into 2H26, &we henceremain positive on Samsung's HBM sharegain this yeardespite theApr&Maydata trackedbehindour current2Q26projection (seeSamsung1Q26earningstakeaway). For SK hynix, we have identified that its HBM export should come nearly all from N.Chungchoeng Province and Icheon City,where its waferfabs are. May export data dropped by-9% MoMfrom a very strong Apr.Feb was also a high base and theMaydata hencewas3%lowerQoQ(Exhibit 7).Incomparison,ourcurrentforecast hasSKhynix2Q26HBMrevenueup36%QoQ to US$8.2B, which could be reached should monthly export stay at this level for the next month (Exhibit 8). Though if weapply regression analysis using historical data, May exportdata suggested US$7.5B HBppM revenuefor SK hynix in 2Q26,up 25% QoQ but slightly behind our forecast (Exhibit 9). This is because SK hynix HBM export's monthly seasonality wasmore evenly distributed historically,at times even front end loaded (Exhibit 10). All things considered, data indicated that SKhynix is likelyto also deliverrobust HBMgrowth in 2Q26 EXHIBIT 2: Export from S.Chungcheong was up 79% MoM and up 55%QoQ vs.Feb. MultichipMemory Export from S.Chungcheong toTW+MYvs Samsung HBM Revenue Maydata would suggest Samsungtohave