韩国存储器出口追踪（3月）：强劲的一个月，显示三星和SK海力士26年一季度HBM收入环比增长中双位数

Korea Memory Export Tracker (Mar): A strong month, suggesting1Q26 HBM revenue up mid-teens% QoQ for Samsung & SK hynix We track the Korea export data as it is a good early indicator for Samsung’s & SK hynix’sHBM revenue in the same quarter, and update this tracker with the Mar data. Details of ourmethodology can be found in our prior note. The dataset can be downloaded at this link. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Overall HBM export in Mar grew further from the strong Feb.Overall 1Q26 exportgrew by 15% QoQ thanks to a strong recovery in Feb and Mar, despite the weak Jan. Between Samsung & SK hynix, Samsung Mar HBM exports remained solid andtracked in line with our estimate.Export from S. Chungcheong Province (whereSamsung packages HBM) went up further MoM seasonally. 1Q26 was up 19% QoQ.Regression considers the backend-loaded seasonality & suggests 1Q26 HBM revenue torise by 17% QoQ, and should be in line with our forecast. Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Export for SK hynix continued to be very strong and above expectations.Mar exportfrom N. Chungcheong & Icheon was up another 42% QoQ & brought 1Q26 export to be upby 13% QoQ. And based on that, regression predicts 1Q26 HBM revenue to grow slightlymore by 16% QoQ, better than the decline that we model. Data confirmed HBM price has been insulated from the volatility of conventionalmemory price.Conventional memory price surged in the past few months, but HBM price,suggested by value per weight, largely stayed in the same range as before. No sign of ASP increase from HBM4 yet.As HBM has much higher dollar value perweight, we track “value per weigh” as it may be directionally suggestive of HBM pricechange. Mar “value per weight” rose slightly MoM for both Samsung & SK hynix, but neithershowed sign of HBM4 yet. However, the trend over the past few months has been generallyflattish or positive for Samsung but declining for SK hynix. SK hynix export recovered strongly in Feb & Mar, bringing its 1Q26 total to enjoysolid QoQ growth. We wonder if it was due to potential Rubin delay causing someorders to shift to Blackwell & HBM3E. That said we maintain that Samsung isimproving its position in HBM4 & it should gradually gain share later this year. Export to Malaysia retreated but remained at notable levels.Size fell MoM to US$0.6B in Mar, still above Nov & Dec level, with the supply still predominantly from Samsung.No sign of HBM export to destinations other than Taiwan & Malaysia, and also no signthat Samsung or SK hynix was producing HBM at a location that we don’t track. Ourmethodology thus remains robust. We see stronger-than-expected memory price in 2Q26.We expect strong HBMdemand growth in the next 2 years. For conventional memory, we model price to hikestrongly again in 2Q26, but peak in 1H27, and gradually normalize afterwards. We remainstructurally constructive on Samsung, SK hynix & Micron but negative on KIOXIA on Chinacompetition & valuation. Please find our latest updates at Global Memory: Price increasemore than expected in 2QCY26. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 225,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 1,150,000. DETAILS Korea Customs Service has released export data for March. As our previous note found, the export data for certain memoryproducts bears close correlation with HBM revenues of Samsung and SK hynix. We hence track the monthly data to provideinvestors a preview on HBM revenues from the two companies in the same quarter. Details of our methodology can be found in theprevious note. You may also download the export data at this link. Mar data grew further for Samsung & indicated its 1Q26 HBM revenue will likely be in line with our model. ForSK hynix, the data also remained very strong & suggested solid QoQ growth for its 1Q26 HBM revenue, above ourforecast. •Mar Korea total multichip memory export to Taiwan and Malaysia was US$4.2B, 14% higher over the strong Feb data. YoYgrowth remained robust at 94% (Exhibit 1). On QoQ basis, Mar was up by 33% (vs. Dec), and overall 1Q26 grew 15% QoQvs. 4Q25. As we analyzed before, multichip memory export to Taiwan and Malaysia tracked closely with HBM revenues fromSamsung and SK hynix and therefore the Jan to Mar data indicated the 1Q26 HBM revenue should grew decently QoQ. •If we focus on export from S. Chungcheong Province, where Samsung’s back-end fabs are and likely where its HBM ispackaged, Mar export grew by another 39% MoM. QoQ it increased by 21% vs. Dec and the total 1Q26 export was 19%higher than 4Q25 (Exhibit 2). In comparison, our latest forecast has Samsung HBM revenue rise by 17% QoQ in 1Q26 to US$3.9B, and hence the data suggests Samsung HBM export is tracking in line with our forecast (Exhibit 3). Actually accordingto the regression using historical data