韩国内存出口追踪器（5月）：创纪录高月，HBM4爬坡现早期迹象

Korea Memory Export Tracker (May): A record high month withearly signs on HBM4 ramp We track the Korea export data as it is a good early indicator for Samsung’s & SK hynix’sHBM revenue in the same quarter, and update this tracker with the May data. Details of ourmethodology can be found in our prior note. The dataset can be downloaded at this link. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Overall HBM export grew strongly QoQ vs. Feb, reaching a record high.May datagrew 13% MoM on seasonality & more importantly up 15% QoQ vs. Feb. Data suggested healthy HBM growth for Samsung in 2Q26.Export from S.Chungcheong Province (where Samsung packages HBM) grew 79% MoM & up 55% QoQvs. Feb. Regression predicts 2Q26 HBM revenue to rise by 58% QoQ. It is behind ourestimate likely due to Rubin delay but HBM4 ramp will help 2H26 enjoy acceleration. Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Export for SK hynix also stayed robust.May export from N. Chungcheong & Icheondropped by -9% from the high Apr base & was modestly down by -3% QoQ vs. a relativelystrong Feb. Regression predicts 2Q26 HBM revenue to grow 25% QoQ, slightly behind ourwe forecast. Early sign of Samsung HBM4 ramp.As HBM has much higher dollar value per weight,we track “value per weigh” as it may be directionally suggestive of HBM price change. May“value per weight” grew 30% for Samsung but remained largely flattish for SK hynix, likelyreflecting the ramp of Samsung’s HBM4 rather than a broad HBM price hike. The trend overthe past few months has been generally positive for Samsung but flattish or declining for SKhynix. Data confirmed HBM price has been insulated from the volatility of conventionalmemory price.Conventional memory price surged, but HBM price, as suggested by valueper weight, largely stayed in the same range as before, especially for SK hynix. Export to Malaysia dropped seasonally but remained at a notable level.The sizefell MoM to US$0.3B in May, mainly due to drops in the export from SK hynix, thoughpast seasonality suggested it should recover in later months. No sign of HBM export todestinations other than Taiwan & Malaysia, and also no sign that Samsung or SK hynix wasproducing HBM at a location that we don’t track. Our methodology thus remains robust. Overall May data suggested healthy HBM growth for 2Q26, with a notable sign ofHBM4 ramp at Samsung.Between the two, the data was slightly behind vs. our forecastfor SK hynix & notably slower for Samsung as our model likely may not model the HBM4delay properly. We also maintain that Samsung is improving its position in HBM4 & shouldgain more momentum in 2H26. On the other hand, HBM price being resetting now shouldtrigger an upward revision for 2027. Conventional memory price increase to stay strong in 2Q26.We see continued pricehike to support stocks, esp. for KIOXIA. We remain structurally constructive on Samsung,SK hynix & Micron but negative on KIOXIA on China competition. Our detailed SOTPvaluation also finds KIOXIA over-valued. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 225,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 1,150,000. DETAILS Korea Customs Service has released export data for May. Asour previous notefound, the export data for certain memoryproducts bears close correlation with HBM revenues of Samsung and SK hynix. We hence track the monthly data to provideinvestors a preview on HBM revenues from the two companies in the same quarter. Details of our methodology can be found inthe previous note. You may also download the export data at thislink. May data came strong on QoQ & MoM basis and indicated that 2Q26 HBM revenue to grow robustly QoQ for bothSamsung & SK hynix. •May Korea total multichip memory export to Taiwan and Malaysia was up 13% MoM, & reached a record high of US$4.2B.May data was up 15% QoQ (vs. Feb) and also up 83% YoY (Exhibit 1). As we analyzed before, multichip memory export toTaiwan and Malaysia tracked closely with HBM revenues of Samsung and SK hynix and therefore the May data indicatedcontineud robust momentum into 2Q26. •If we focus on the export from S. Chungcheong Province, where Samsung’s back-end fabs are and likely where its HBM ispackaged, May export jumped to US$1.76B from Apr by 79% MoM due to the low base of Apr. Weakness in Apr should belargely due to the backend-loaded monthly seasonality, as Apr + May delivered solid 43% growth QoQ (vs. Jan+Feb) (Exhibit2). In comparison, our forecast has Samsung HBM revenue rising 2x in 2Q26, which seems too aggressive now consideringRubin’s delay (Exhibit 3). According to the regression using historical data, May data suggested US$5.6B in HBM revenuefor Samsung in 2Q26, significantly below our estimate by -26% but still growing QoQ by 58% (Exhibit 4). Moreover, we alsonoticed that Samsung’s HBM export monthly se