华润置地（1209.HK）：增长前景不确定性上升，维持持有评级

China Resources Mixc(1209 HK) Hold:Risinguncertainties ongrowthoutlook China ◆Softeningretail salesisstarting to erodeCR Mixc’svaluationpremium,reinforcing ourcautiousstance MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE(HKD)44.00SHARE PRICE(HKD)41.10 ◆Increasingdownside risk to 2026guidancefordouble-digitcore profit growthshouldretail salescontinue tofade Maintain Hold with a lower TP of HKD44.00 (from HKD48.00) (as of03 Jun 2026) Premium valuationremainssensitive to retail sales deterioration:CR Mixc’sshare pricehas fallen20%fromitsMaypeak(sector average:-12%andHSI:-5%) asconsumptionmomentum has cooled.We have been cautious onthe stock’svaluationpremium(Downgrade to Hold: Expectations feel overwhelming, 14January2026),arguing that consensus expectations for sustained double-digit earningsgrowth over the next three yearslook optimistic.The recentretailsales softness is Downside risk to 2026 earnings guidance is rising:At the annual results briefing,management guidedtodouble-digitearningsgrowth in 2026,underpinned by high- single-digit SSSG (Solid results but largely priced in, 30 March 2026).However, therecent retail sales slowdown has surprised themarketon the downside, withnotableweakness in jewellery, homeappliances, furniture and autos.Our current forecastimpliesonly10%core profitgrowth in2026.Therefore,if retail sales continue to Earnings sensitivity tomall revenueremains modest:When market sentimentwas overlybullishontranslatingstrongretail sales to outsized earnings growth, wehighlighted that even strong shopping mall performance would deliveronlylimitedupside at the core profitlevel. Now, despite sentiment having swung the other way,our sensitivity work points to a similarly contained downside:for every 1ppt shortfallin shopping mall revenue growth, core profit growth slows by only 0.5ppt, all else Stephen Wang*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk Michelle Kwok*Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6918 Oliver Yu*Analyst, Asia Real Estate Maintain Hold,lower target pricetoHKD44.00 (from HKD48.00):Basedonalowertarget PE multiple of19x (from 21x), set at the historical mean PE multiple ofmainland China and globalPM peers (from 0.25 SDabovemean), applied to ourunchangedblended 2026e-27e EPS ofHKD2.30.We revise downourtarget multiplegiven weakened retailsalestrendsand rising uncertaintiesaroundearnings growth.We, therefore,maintainour Hold rating.Upside risks:strong SSSG, acceleration in The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 2050 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking CorporationLimited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation: China Resources Mixc Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report,including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyother Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis: The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we expect it to take sixto 12months for the market price to reflect this.When the target price is more than 20%above the current share price, the stock willbe classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy oraHold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it is between Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of an