名创优品（9896）：2025年销售增长前景比盈利能力更具确定性；维持持有

2024A2025E2026E2027E21,141.324,711.328,659.03,438.83,614.14,555.45,420.02,617.62,284.13,348.94,170.12.101.832.683.34 Anne Ling * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8783 | aling@jefferies.comBoya Zhen * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8774 | bzhen@jefferies.com The Long View: MinisoInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferMiniso is a global retailer that offers a variety of design-led lifestyleproducts. Its IP strategy has been successful in China as well as in overseasmarket. We like its core business.However, we think the investment in YH (concluded in 1Q25) will drag downits valuation. The acquisition poses a risk of Miniso branching out to lessfavorable/premature investments, in our view. We have a Hold rating.Upside risks include better than expected performance for its core business,or success in YH revamp. Downside risks include lower than expectedperformance in overseas expansion, store opening vs cannibalization,inability to sustain popularity of products, and YH's performance draggingMiniso's resources.Base Case,HK$36, -15%NP growth of -13/+47/+25% on sales growth of+24/+17/+16% for CY25/26/27. Assumptions:•Miniso brand:Net store openings of0/400/400inChinaandoverseas in CY26/26/27.•adjOPM(reported)17.2%/17.9%/18.3% in CY25/26/27.Our primary valuation method is DCF, with WACCof 15.1%, beta of 2, and TGR of 1.0%. Thisproduces a fair value of USD18.5/ADS, or HK$36.0/sh (including HK$4.5/sh for its 29% stakein YH based on mkt cap w/ 25% discount).Overall PT= 18/13x CY25/26E PESustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): Employee Engagement, Diversity & Inclusion.Minsio has 3696 employeesglobally as of Jun 2023. Promoting diversity encourages innovation and adds variety to productoffering, which is essential for overseas expansion.Labor Practices. Minsio has been constantlyadjusting its HR policy to comply with labor laws, regulations, and all material changes. It participatesin various employee benefit plans per government statutory and offers competitive compensationsand a healthy work environment to ability to attract, develop, and retain qualified personnel.Company Target(s):1) Miniso is looking to set an ESG policy post HK listing. The board will beresponsible for decision making, reporting, and risk evaluation for ESG-related work. It will also incharge of the ESG policy implementation and revisions.Qs to Mgmt:1) What is the currently time-line on introducing ESG policy? 2) What are the key ESG-related objectives and responsibilities in the policy? And how will they impact business performance?Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 550/600/600toreach Upside Scenario,HK$52.5, +24%NP growth of +0/+45/+25% on sales growth of+25/+25/+25% for FY25/26/27F.PT of US$27/ADS, HK$52.5/share. Downside Scenario,HK$29.15, -31%NP growth of -20/+15/+14% on sales growth of+17/+15/+10% for FY25/26/27F.PT of US$15/ADS, HK$29.15/share.CatalystsShare price catalysts include:•Quarterly sales trend•GPM and OPM sustainability•Store opening guidance•Top Toy performance•Yonghui 's performance 2 Figure 2 - Share price - HK$42.25.Calendar YE DecSales (CYN m)EBITDA (CNYm)Net Profit (CNYm)EPS per ordinary (CNY)EPS per ADS (CNY)% changePERDPS per ordinary share (CNY)DPS per ADS (CNY)Yield (%)Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesFigure 3 - Forecast changes.YE Dec RMBm2025FSales21,141GP9,725EBITDA3,614EBIT3,344Pretax3,013Net profit2,284EPS (ADS)7.31JEF ForecastSource: Factset, Jefferies estimatesFigure 4 - Mgmt guidance for 2025.Sales growthOverallChinaOverseasNet store openingOverallMiniso ChinaMiniso OverseasTop ToySource: Company data, JefferiesFigure 5 - Sales assumptions.YE DecRMBmSales by regionSales by regionChinaInternational% yoy growthSales by regionChinaInternationalMixSales by regionChinaInternationalSales by segmentSales by segmentDomesticMiniso BrandTop ToyOther segmentInternational (Miniso only)Distributor marketsDirectly operated markets% yoy growthSales by segmentDoesmticMiniso BrandTop ToyOther segmentInternationalDistributor marketsDirectly operated marketsMixSales by segmentDoesmticMiniso BrandTop ToyOther segmentInternationalDistributor marketsDirectly operated marketsSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Figure 6 - P&L.YE DecRMBmas reportedSalesCOGSGPOther incomeS&D expensesG&A expensesOther net incomeCredit loss on trade and other receivablesImpairment loss on non-current assetsOperating profitFinance incomeFinance costsInterest on loans and borrowingsInterest on lease liabilitiesFair value changes of redeemable shares with other preferential rights /Share of profit of equity-accounted investee, net of tax/other exp-PBTTaxPATDiscontinued operationsTotal NPMinoritiesNP to shareholdersAdjusted profit for the yearFair value c