亚洲科技硬件：15年资产负债表与现金流分析，Chroma ATE和舜宇光学模型更新

Asia Tech Hardware: Insights from a 15-year balance sheet & cashflow analysis; Chroma ATE and Sunny Optical model update Following our 2025 balance sheet & cash flow deep dive, we update analysis across ourcoverage with a focus on business models, profitability, solvency, and efficiency. Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com AI demand is driving a sharp ROE upcycle, with AI-exposed names significantlyoutperforming consumer electronics peers.Chroma, Delta, and Quanta are all likelyreaching 30%+ ROE in 2026E, and we expect Unimicron’s ROE to recover from previouscyclical trough. In contrast, consumer names (Luxshare, Largan, Sunny) are set to improvemore gradually to mid-teens to low-20% ROE, reflecting the nascent contribution of AIbusinesses. 3-year DuPont analysis showsLargan’shigh ~40% NPM is offset by lowleverage and asset turnover (cash-heavy balance sheet).Chromaleads in both ROE andROIC, supported by structurally high margins and low capital intensity.In PCB supply chain,Japanese leaders’ dominance in raw material doesn’t yield outstanding ROIC, likely due to alimited AI revenue mix. Server-exposed firms (Elite, Gold Circuit, WUS, Victory Giant; all notcovered)) show higher ROIC. Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA+852 2123 2660shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Balance sheets remain strong across coverage:most companies maintain net cashpositions, with stable to declining D/E ratios, exceptQuantawhere leverage is rising withAI server expansion. Cash conversion cycles are generally under 120 days, reflecting solidoperational efficiency and bargaining power;Chromais an outlier due to longer inventoryand qualification cycles. For capex intensity,UnimicronandLarganhave demonstratedrelatively high capex levels, driven by strong demand in PCB markets and Apple’s stringentrequirements for lens manufacturing equipment, respectively. On shareholder returns,QuantaandChromalead with 75–85% payout ratios, while none of our covered companieshave established regular share buyback plans. Model update: for Chroma, we model sales/operating profit CAGR of 46%/65%through 2028. We raise topline estimates meaningfully on surging AI datacenter powerdemand, ESS recovery, and semi/photonics growth. ATS revenue is projected to grow 80% /45% in 2026/2027 on AIDC power testing, while SLT revenue should rise ~80% in 2026 andreach record levels in 2027 on next-gen platforms for Rubin Ultra and Google. ForCPO,wemodel Chroma’s TAM to be NT$5B+ in 2027 (mainly from insertion 3), and to likely contributeto 7% of company revenue. Our 2026-27 EPS are above consensus. We raise our price targetto NT$2,750(38x P/E unchanged) based on 2027-28 avg. EPS estimate of NT$72.4 (vs. old2027 EPS NT$43.7).Outperform. For Sunny Optical, we forecast a 12% / 19% revenue / EPS CAGR over 2025-28,Weraise 2027-28 revenue forecasts on iPhone camera module share gains. While we lower GMestimates due to memory cost pressure in 2026, we expect it to recover by ~1ppt in 2027.Communication optics remains early-stage; further updates expected at Investor Day and1H26 results (CPO optics primer). Increasing target P/E to 18x from 17x on potential Applecamera module share gain and rolling forward to 2027 EPS of RMB4.5 (vs. prior 2026-27avg. EPS of RMB3.9), we raise price target to HK$94.Outperform. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Delta Electronics (model):We rate Delta Electronics Outperform, with PT = NT$2,620.00. Chroma ATE (model):We rate Chroma ATE Outperform, with PT = NT$2,750.00.Quanta Computer (model):We rate Quanta Computer Underperform, with PT = NT$250.00.Unimicron Technology (model):We rate Unimicron Technology Outperform, with PT = NT$990.00.Luxshare Precision (model):We rate Luxshare Precision Outperform, with PT = RMB86.00.Sunny Optical (model):We rate Sunny Optical Outperform, with PT = HK$94.00.Largan Precision (model):We rate Largan Precision Market-Perform, with PT = NT$5,150.00. Table Of Contents Profitability..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3Return on equity (ROE)................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3Return on invested capital (ROIC; including cash in the invested capital)....................................................................................................7Solvency.....................................................................................................................................................................