亚洲科技硬件：2026年第一季度PCB市场更新及欣兴电子模型更新

Asia Tech Hardware: 1Q26 PCB market update & Unimicron modelupdate PCB/substrate stocks have rallied sharply YTD 2026, driven by rising content in AI servers andexpectations of ASP hikes this year. Following our primer Artificial Intelligence: Inside the Warfor AI Data Center Connectivity, we update 1Q26 PCB market view and Unimicron model. Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com In 1Q26, sampled AI PCB companies combined delivered +38% YoY and +8% QoQrevenue growth.Key AI-exposed players (Unimicron, Ibiden, VGT, WUS, GCE) saw decentrevenue expansion. With a lower base compared to peers, gross margin of Unimicron and NanYa PCB continued improving thanks to strong ABF pricing environment and better productmix. New suppliers in AI PCB market including Delton (focusing on CPU motherboard) andZhen Ding (focusing on consumer electronics) are also scaling AI exposure this year.ABFsubstrate revenue growth accelerated to 40% YoY in 1Q26, and is about to surpass theprevious peak in 4Q22 peak. We anticipate strong growth ahead as driven by the volume andprice increases. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Euan McLeish+81 3 5962 9611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA+852 2123 2660shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Raw material tightness should persist through 2026, supporting strong pricingenvironment for the overall PCB market. Following the price hikes of T-glass, CCL andcopper foil, ABF film cost are also reported to rise in 2H26. Some CPUs are adopting T-glassfrom second-source suppliers, per our channel check, but we assume limited GPU/ASICadoption of tier-2 suppliers by end-2026. ABF substrate capacity additions are acceleratingas AI demand visibility improves over the next two years. Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Hao Wang, CFA+852 2123 2627hao.wang@bernsteinsg.com For Unimicron (OP), we revise 2027 estimates and roll forward to 2028.We estimateABF substrate ASP increased 5% QoQ in 1Q26 and will accelerate to 7-10% QoQ through2026 driven by a ~30% raw material cost hike from 2Q and a richer high-end ABF mix. AI ABF+HDI should reach half of company revenue going forward, supporting a 30% revenue CAGRin 2025-28E.We model EPS to more than triple to NT$14 in 2026, then grow ~80%in 2027 and ~45% in 2028 to NT$36.6.We assume a more gradual margin recovery vs.consensus, with GM reaching ~35% by end-2028, and do not factor in a “shortage-driven”margin spike next year. lower 2027–28 EPS than the Street, we see sequential profitabilityimprovement on growing AI and CPU demand. We maintain a 32x P/E on 2027–28 avg.EPS of NT$30.8 (vs. old 2027 EPS of NT$19.1), raising PT to NT$990 (from NT$610).Outperform. Mufei Gao+81 3 6777 6995mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com For Ibiden (OP), while we are reviewing model updates post a strong quarter guidance,we continue to believe the strong position in AI accelerator, server CPU, and EMIB-Twill generate strong revenue and profit growth. For Ajinomoto (MP), both revenue and business profit growth beat our expectation inthe Mar-Q,at +42% & 56% respectively. While operational leverage remained depressed at1.3x, we expect this to bounce back to c. 1.7x from Q1 onward, and we expect revenues tomaintain their c. 30% growth run rate. They have also announced a new capacity expansionplan to build a 3rdABF film factory by 2032. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended2802.JP estimate is EBITDA (M); 2802.JP valuation is EV/EBITDA (x); 2802.JP base year is 2026;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate UnimicronOutperform, with PT =NT$990.00(model). We rate IbidenOutperform, with PT =¥9,200.00. We rate AjinomotoMarket-Performwith PT atJPY5,100(model). DETAILS PCB MARKET UPDATE The AI PCB and ABF substrate market continues the strong momentum in 1Q26, driven by accelerating AI servershipments. Strong demand from data center and networking segments continues to offset weakness in legacy automotive andindustrial markets. Leading suppliers with high exposure to AI theme (e.g.,Unimicron, Ibiden, Victory Giant, Gold Circuitetc.)saw rapid revenue growth and QoQ margin improvement; Others players likeKinsusandNan Ya PCB, though with less AI PCBexposure, are also riding upcycle driven by AI’s spillover effect and surging CPU demand.Delton Tech, a key supplier for CPUmotherboard, is also expanding its exposure to AI server starting from China market. Further upside is expected as long-termpricing agreements take effect.Zhen Ding,the largest PCB supplier globally focusing on consumer electronics, also saw its ICsubstrate & networking PCB revenue exposure rose to 20% in 1Q26, from 11% in 1Q25. (All stocks mentioned are not coveredexcept for Unimicron and Ibiden.) Looking ahead,