您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [美银证券]:迈向长期每股收益能力的中途;上调欣兴电子/南亚电路板/景硕科技的目标价 - 发现报告

迈向长期每股收益能力的中途;上调欣兴电子/南亚电路板/景硕科技的目标价

2026-04-22 美银证券 路仁假
报告封面

raisePOsofUnimicron/NYPCB/KinsusPrice Objective Change S/D looks more favorable from cloth/substrate perspective Asia-PacificTechnology substrate itself, we reckon the lead time of delivery for certain substrates has beenextended to up to three quarters. We regard this as a more favorable backdrop for major Mike Yang >Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Taiwan) substrate suppliers from Taiwan, given the greater potential to raise ASP further. In thisreport, we discuss the long-term EPS power (in 2030) of Unimicron, NYPCB (Nan YaPrinted Circuit Board), and Kinsus. For thegross marginoutlook, we raise ourestimatesfor both ABF (Ajinomoto build-up film) and BT (bismaleimide triazine) substratebusinessesforthesenames,givena more favorable S/D (supply/demand)situation forthe former; and 2) indirect benefits for the latter from further tightened E-glass supplyElaboration/discussionoflong-termEPSpowerin2030 mike.c.yang@bofa.comCathy Hsu >>ResearchAnalvstMerrill Lynch (Taiwan) cathy.hsu3@bofa.com toward 2030.From a top-down perspective (Exhibits 4-9) and based on the base-case scenario (mid-point of demand growth and market-share assumptions) with ASP of~US$0.0008permmsq,wesee33%/33%/63%EPSupsideforUnimicron/NYPCB/Kinsusvs our current estimates for 2028-this could reach 74%/90%/109% in the bull-casescenario.From a bottom-up perspective (Exhibits 10-11),we see 76%/70%/28%EPSupside forUnimicron/NYPCB/Kinsus vs ourentestimatesfor2028basedonthebase case scenario-the EPS upside could be 108%/98%/39% in a bull-case scenario.Further, we believe the risk toward the estimates here is skewed toward the upside, aswe adopt a more conservative assumption on GM (gross margin)and opex ratio in 2030.Toelaborate,wefixtheGM/opexassumptions for2030at the4Q28/2028level,whichstrengthened operatingleverage.Raise estimates and POs, reiterate Buy We reiterate our Buy ratings on Unimicron, NYPCB, and Kinsus, as we expect a further widening S/D gap in the substrate space to benefit major suppliers across the board. ForUnimicron, we lift our PO to NT$875 (from NT$740), which is based on the same 29x2H27-1H28EP/E as before.For NYPCB,we raise our PO to NT$960 (from NT$81O),which is based on the same 27x 2Q27-1Q28E P/E as before. As for Kinsus, we lift ourPOtoNT$565 (fromNT$480),which isbasedonthe same27x2Q27-1Q28EP/Easbefore.Regardingestimates,we lift our2026-28EEPSby6-11%/16-25%/17-22%forUnimicron/NYPCB/ Kinsus, after reflecting a more benign outlook on the pricing/marginsfor the substrate businesses. For Kinsus, we change the volatility risk rating to C from B. This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be usedor reproduced orquoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan bythe press or otherpersons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to'Other Important Disclosures'for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks todo business withissuers covered in its research PO (NTS) Stocks mentioned with ratings in this report BofA tickerTickerCompany name Scenario analysis based on top-downapproach Exhibit 5: Implied 2030 EPS upside vs 2028-level for Unimicron33%/74% EPS upside based on the base-/bull-case scenarios Base-/bull-case EPS is NT$58.9/NTS84.0 NYPCB 2030EPS 33%/90% EPS upside based on the base-/bull-case scenarios NYPCB2030 net income Exhibit 8: Scenario analysis on 2030 EPS - KinsusBase-/bull-case EPS is NTS37.2/NTS47.8 Exhibit 9: Implied 2030 EPS upside vs 2028-level for Kinsus63%/109% EPS upside based on the base-/bull-case scenarios Scenario analysis based on bottom-upapproach approachBase-case EPS numbers are NTS58.9/NTS75.0/NTS29.2 for Unimicron/NYPCB/Kinsus, while the bull-case estimates are NTS69.6/NTS87.6/NT$31.8Shipment CAGR: 15%ASP CAGR bottom-up approachImplied EPS upside is 76%/70%/28% for Unimicron/NYPCB/Kinsus under base-case scenario, while the numbers are expected to be 108%/98%/39% in the bull caseShipment CAGR: 15%ASP CAGR Exhibit 12: Earnings estimate changes - UnimicronWe raise 2026-28E EPS by 6-11% after baking in the assumptions of stronger gross margin We expect ~30% revenue CAGR during 2026-28 Exhibit 16: Earnings estimate change -KinsusWe raise 2026-28E EPS by 17-22% after baking in the assumptions for stronger gross margin and operating leverage We expect the firm's gross margin to reach ~30% in 2027-28 Priceobjectivebasis&risk Kinsus (KNSUF)We set our PO at NTS565 based on 27x 2Q27-1Q28E P/E, which is at mid-high-end level in its historical trading range since 2013. In our view, the multiple is backed by ROE andoperating margin recovery to 23% and 19% in 2027-28E. Upside risks to our PO are (1) tighter ABF supply, (2) increasing adoption of SiP and AiP,(3) lower competition pressure and (4) slow